The new, bold improved deal that MPs had been promised was announced yesterday by Mrs May and I think it's fair to say it has not been very well received (HERE), to say the least. It was actually the death rattle of what the PM herself describes as the last chance of getting the deal through the House. It now looks well beyond help and has DNR written all over it. With it will go any prospect of a middle way Brexit. The options are narrowing and we are now in clear no deal or no Brexit territory.
See the full text of her speech HERE
The paradox is that the legislature almost certainly has a good majority for a softish Brexit, remaining in the single market and the customs union, but an executive that will not or cannot propose it. The next PM will have exactly the same problem. He or she will be as impotent as May. The usual way out would be to call an election to change the composition of the House so the executive can get its way. Is the new PM likely to propose a GE? No. The right is going to be seriously split by Farage's Brexit party so we can wave that option goodbye.
Will he or she take us out without a deal? I am almost certain they will not. Chancellor Hammond says this would be to 'knowingly' damage our economy (HERE) something no government has ever done in our peacetime history. Plus, it isn't likely to get through parliament anyway. This is apart from considering the Good Friday Agreement - or the poisoning of relations between us and the EU for years and years.
Even if you believe all the talk of chaos is overblown, it would be a huge gamble. Blind faith against 90% of serious economists. As Einstein once said, "God does not play dice" and Prime ministers don't either.
Even if you believe all the talk of chaos is overblown, it would be a huge gamble. Blind faith against 90% of serious economists. As Einstein once said, "God does not play dice" and Prime ministers don't either.
So what's left? It must be revoke Article 50 or a second referendum. Would a Brexiteer prime minister revoke? Again, almost certainly not, unless a massive existential crisis threatened to engulf us.
When you come down to it, the least worst option is probably a second referendum. I think we moved another step closer yesterday.
I also note that one of the ten points (No 3) that Mrs May listed in her bold offer is this:
The negotiating objectives and final treaties for our future relationship with the EU will have to be approved by MPs.
Since it has taken almost three years to get precisely nowhere on the easy part of Brexit, if this idea ever gets accepted, MPs approving the negotiation objectives, I forecast it will take until 2022 at least - and probably much, much longer - for MPs to agree the aim of the final deal before any talks can actually start! I also forecast that even then the objectives will be completely unrealistic and will fetter the negotiations for years and years. If a trade deal is ready before 2040 it will be a minor miracle.
Now, to change the subject altogether. Yesterday on Politics Live, Andrea Jenkyns one of our local Brexiteer MPs (Morley and Outwood) made an appearance on the lunchtime show. It got extensive coverage in The Independent (HERE) later for all the wrong reasons. She was asked which countries traded with the EU solely on WTO rules to which she answered:
"Errm...I obviously need to look further into that".
Shocking or what? After three years she doesn't know the fundamentals. But what was worse was the BBC doesn't either. Jo Coburn told her that the only countries that trade with the EU purely on that basis are Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and North Korea. But this isn't true!
With the exception of North Korea, they all have bilateral agreements with the EU. Cuba has 2, Venezuela 1, Kazahkstan 11, Belarus 4 and Russia 26. This is apart from 241 multilateral agreements between them. These are not full FTAs but smooth the way for trade. In a no deal Brexit scenario we would literally be joining North Korea as the ONLY country in the world trading purely on WTO terms.
Did anybody pick up on it? No. This information is easily available in seconds on the EU's Treaties Database (HERE) all sorted alphabetically.
One can only despair when even after three years the national broadcaster still can't get it right. No wonder the world is looking on with amusement. They are gradually learning our secret.
