Esther McVey (Lord help us) has launched her leadership campaign with a promise to take us out of the EU with or without a deal (HERE). This is megaphone politics for a no deal Brexit since everybody knows the present deal won't get ratified with this parliament. Her chances are close to zero - and I mean coming up from less than zero. She will be lucky to merely lose.
The others will be piling in over the next few weeks.
Whoever takes May's place will be Brexiteer for sure. But whereas before we had a remain prime minister advocating a hard Brexit, we are now likely to get a hard Brexiteer pushing a soft one. I really don't believe any prime minister wants to go down in history as the decimator of the British economy. Even Boris Johnson or Raab might act tough and try to force the EU into giving in on the backstop, they might make more noise and play to a domestic audience but in the end it will come down to granite hard reality. We need a deal, badly.
No PM will ever opt for leaving with no deal. I say this with confidence because of the chaos that would follow.
To give you some idea of what a no deal exit looks like, can I point you to this government website (HERE) which actually deals with preparing for Brexit in respect of Norway and Iceland, the EFTA/EEA countries. It begins with a few specific agreements concluded or in the process of being concluded on:
EEA EFTA Citizens’ Rights Agreement
Norway and Iceland Trading Arrangements
UK-Switzerland-Liechtenstein Trade Agreement
Norway Fishing Agreement
Iceland Air Services Arrangement
Norway Air Services Arrangement
Norway Road Transport Agreement
Each is a hyperlink that takes you to the specific agreement. Next follows a list of general guidance about dealing with both the EEA and the EU after Brexit with this explanation:
We have published extensive advice on the steps businesses and citizens may need to take to prepare for our exit from the EU in all scenarios. A number of these publications provide guidance and advice relevant to Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. These are listed below.
In some cases, these publications also set out measures the UK is taking unilaterally to safeguard our relationships with the EU, EEA EFTA states and Switzerland in the event that the UK leaves without a deal.
Please note that this is a collection of guidance and may therefore not be an exhaustive list of all guidance relevant to you. You should refer to gov.uk/euexit for further information relating to EU exit.
Even this is not apparently an exhaustive list but it shows 83 different areas that will be affected, from a guide to living in Liechtenstein, special rules for exporting horses and ponies to trading gas and electricity, transport, legal services, pesticide regulations, mobile roaming and so on and so on. Again, each item on the list is a hyperlink taking you to the more detailed, lengthy and specific guidance.
As an example let's go to the section dealing with lorry and goods vehicle drivers (HERE) and look just a part of what it says:
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October 2019
You can continue to use your EU Community Licence until 31 December 2019. You will not need any extra permits to transport goods in EU countries until 1 January 2020.
You’d be allowed to do these types of journeys:
- journeys to and from the UK, for example, a journey from the UK to Germany, or a journey from Italy to the UK
- driving through EU countries to reach another EU country, for example, driving through France to reach Spain
- limited cabotage or cross-trade – the rules on what you can do will change from the day the UK leaves the EU
You will not be allowed to drive through the EU and EEA to a third country, for example, driving through France to get to Switzerland, without an ECMT permit.
If you get a new international operator licence or renew your licence from April 2019, you will get a ‘UK Licence for the Community’ instead of an EU Community Licence. This will work in the same way as the EU Community Licence. It will let you do the same journeys a Community Licence allows. The same rules will apply to using it. You do not need to exchange EU Community Licences for UK Licences for the Community.
Arrangements for haulage in the EU after 2019 are not yet agreed.
Haulage in the Republic of Ireland
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October 2019, you can use your Community Licence for journeys to and from Ireland, journeys through Ireland to other EU or EEA countries, or journeys through Ireland between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Haulage in Switzerland and Norway
The UK has signed transport agreements with Switzerland and Norway. The agreements mean that you can continue to drive in Switzerland and Norway using a Community Licence after the UK leaves the EU.
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October 2019, you will need an ECMT permit for journeys through EU or EEA countries to Switzerland.
Trailer registration
You must register commercial trailers weighing over 750kg and non-commercial trailers weighing over 3,500kg before towing them to or through most EU and EEA countries.
If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 31 October 2019, some EU and EEA countries may also require a separate Green Card as proof of insurance for trailers.
If you take an abnormal load trailer outside the UK you must apply for a keeper’s certificate for an abnormal load trailer. You need to keep the keeper’s certificate in your vehicle when you go abroad.
At the end are nine more hyperlinks to guidance on related issues:
Going and being abroad – EU Exit guidance
Importing, exporting and transporting – EU Exit guidance for your business
Passenger travel to Europe by air, rail or sea after Brexit
Passport rules for travel to Europe after Brexit
Prepare to drive in the EU after Brexit: all drivers
Prepare to drive in the EU after Brexit: bus and coach drivers
Trailer registration
Transport – EU Exit guidance
UK nationals in the EU: guidance for UK nationals living in the EU
It goes on and on, Remember, this is just for lorry drivers and operators, there is even more complicated guidance for legal professionals after Brexit (HERE).
Collectively the whole thing runs to hundreds, maybe thousands of pages. Nobody will convince me that if we exit without a deal everyone in this country will, on the following day, be fully conversant with every rule and regulation change in every area where they are likely to be impacted.
In my experience, just one change of a rule or regulation is usually preceded by months of publicity with very long lead times especially where you need additional official paperwork so that there isn't a big rush at the end. A no deal Brexit would require multiple changes across every possible sector - overnight. It would make chaos look like the movement of a Swiss watch.
So, the new Tory PM is going to have to do a very big selling job, firstly on the membership who voted for him or her, many of whom expect Britain to leave without deal, not to mention the 40% or so of the population who have had rammed into them the insane belief that no deal is better than a bad deal.
Personally, I would think this would be more than enough to trouble even the slippery, silver tongue of Boris Johnson. The others haven't got a prayer. It will go down in history as one of the greatest humiliations, U turns and betrayals - ever.
