The Telegraph HERE has a report of an interview with him where, when asked if he is bluffing about leaving on WTO terms, he says he isn't and "we've got to show a bit more gumption." The problem is that the EU know that he is bluffing.
If WTO terms were remotely acceptable the rational thing for him to do would be to simply announce we are leaving on Halloween and tell Brussels there will be no more talks. He would then wait confident in the knowledge the EU would soon come running after us begging us to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.
It's as though he can't accept they really, genuinely, actually don't believe we would go through with it. A threat which Brexiteers thought would strike fear into EU negotiators is not having the desired effect. Why not? It must be because Theresa May didn't say no deal is better than a bad deal often enough or loud enough or mean it enough.
The EU see us desperately trying to replicate the 40 or so trade deals we have at present inside the EU and failing badly. Canada has followed Japan in refusing to talk about future trade until our relationship with the EU is settled. The deal with Japan is the largest ever concluded but even that is dwarfed by our trade with the EU27. Why are we so desperate to sign comparatively small FTAs yet apparently happy to walk away from our biggest export market by far?
No deal will of course hurt the EU but capitulating to the UK will hurt them even more. And the economic hit to us will be the most painful of all.
This morning Phillip Rycroft, the former most senior civil servant at DEXEU, the department responsible for Brexit, has spoken about how, "The rational outcome over the next few months is to get a deal because
that is overwhelmingly in the economic interest of both the EU and the
UK." Adding:
"I think everybody should be worried about what happens in a no-deal situation. We would be taking a step into the unknown."
A deal is overwhelmingly in the interests of both the EU and the UK. The difference is that they can't afford to relent because of the Irish border and the integrity of the single market. But they can afford to wait and endure a bit of an ache. We will suffer a lot of initial and long-term pain and possibly the break up of the country. It is a no-brainer for them.
Speaking of no-brainers, also this morning, on the Brexit Central website (HERE), Johnson writes that he wants to renegotiate the deal but:
"If our friends feel they cannot agree, then we will be match fit for No Deal. We will have the fiscal firepower to support business and agriculture. We will be free to substantially diverge on tax and regulation. I don’t know about you, but I have had enough of being told that we cannot do it — that the sixth biggest economy in the world is not strong enough to run itself and go forward in the world".
Several problems here. As soon as we start training to become 'match fit' the markets will react badly.
This morning Sterling starts at €1.1164 and $1.2527. This is already quite a drop over the last few weeks. Let's see how it goes in the next couple of months. Secondly, the Chancellor has already warned we do not have what BoJo calls the 'fiscal firepower'. Public sector borrowing is set to rise this year in any event. We live on borrowed money. It will be interesting to see if our creditors are happy to lend money to a nation which seeks to damage its own future earnings potential. Finally, he calls the UK the world's sixth biggest economy - but let's not forget in 2016 we were the fifth. Later this year we will almost certainly become the seventh, as India overtakes us.
It is just more bluff from someone who would be useless at poker.
And finally, the leaked cables from Sir Kim Darroch with a lot of disparaging stuff about Trump is intriguing many people. Who leaked the cables and why? There is some speculation that it is to get Sir Kim fired as UK ambassador to the Americans so that he can be replaced by someone more to Trump's liking. Someone who I think Trump has even suggested in the past. He is of course none other that Nigel P Farage.
On cue, Farage has written a piece for The Telegraph (HERE) condemning Darroch for the 'slur' (what you and I know as the truth) on Donald Trump. He is urging that Darroch be given his 'marching orders'. Perhaps to make way for himself?
Question: Could we, or indeed the wider world, afford Farage as the go-between for Trump and Johnson? OMG.
