If you believe, as I do, that no British prime minister would be so stupid as to willfully inflict on us the sort of economic calamity a no deal Brexit would cause, then you have to consider what other options might be open in September or October. Renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement is also definitely off the table. Both Hunt and Johnson know this already but are continuing the charade, at least until one or the other is in office.
This leaves either asking for another delay (but to what purpose?) or revoking Article 50 unilaterally and perhaps temporarily. Either route could easily involve a People's Vote and I noted someone recently speculating on how Boris Johnson might manage another referendum. I always assumed he would put his considerable weight (literally and metaphorically) behind a campaign either to ratify the WA with a slightly revised Political Declaration or leave without a deal.
But this would leave him open to the same problem that Cameron faced. If remain won he would find himself leading a government packed to the gunwales with Brexiteers, having to accept the status quo and remain inside the EU. Awkward, eh? Losing a referendum would almost certainly see him gone inside 24 hours.
This could be important.
Johnson may choose to be a bit more chary, although circumspection is not his strong point let's face it, and place himself above the fray as it were. That way he could actually continue as PM to implement the new 'will of the people'. He might last a bit longer if nothing else.
On the other hand, if he goes full throttle behind leaving it would be a very big gamble for him and far more of a problem for us. Governments have a lot of power to influence and with Boris at No 10 one can imagine a ruthless campaign to persuade the electorate that leaving the EU still represents an opportunity for a great and glorious future, despite all the evidence pointing the other way. Brexiteers were desperately unhappy that Cameron spent £9 million of taxpayer's money pushing remain before the 2016 referendum. I imagine they would have no compunction at all in doing much more with the government machine and taxpayer's money when the boot is on the other foot.
But being above the battle must have some attractions to any PM. It is perhaps the first stepping stone to winning a post Brexit election as a unity candidate. Johnson thinks he can unite the country but he won't be able to if he has alienated almost half of it by campaigning vigorously to leave - or indeed, if remain do win, he will have upset more than half of it.
Being neutral would also limit how the government conducted itself during the campaign and what it spent - or was allowed to spend. All of which would help the remain side.
A lot will depend on how the economy performs over the summer, with the markets increasingly nervous that we may crash out on WTO terms at the end of October. Business warnings are getting louder and given what happened in 2016 I don't think they will be as silent and even-handed as before. A slew of economic data is due out tomorrow and will probably show GDP actually fell in the second quarter. Construction is being badly hit, manufacturing investment and output are down and the all-important service sector is stagnating. All of this will probably have a much bigger influence than all the other remain arguments. When Brexit starts to become real soft leavers may begin to get second thoughts.
The Labour party are moving very slowly towards advocating a second referendum with affiliated trade unions now backing a policy of putting any final deal to the people, with a option to remain on the ballot.
The People's Vote 'Let us be heard' campaign will be running throughout the summer too and will culminate in a huge march in London on October 12th.
By then we will know a lot more about how Brexit will finally pan out.
