First, the Brecon and Radnorshire result overnight was a welcome fillip to remainers. The LibDem win, overturning a Tory majority of 8,000 to win by 1425 votes was absolutely magnificent. Labour's vote went DOWN by 12% and the Tories' by 9.6%. And if we were to use the by-election as a poll on Brexit the pro-Brexit parties (Conservative, UKIP and TBP) collectively received 50.14% (if I ignore the Monster Raving Loony party's 1%). In the referendum Leave won by 53.7% so the constituency has turned against Brexit by a bit less than the national swing we see elsewhere. But nonetheless, all good news.
It sends a clear message to Labour and cuts the Tory majority to just one - although Charlie Elphicke (Dover) has only had the whip suspended and in practice he would still follow the party line, so Johnson's majority is cut to two, still very slim. The result will make Conservative party managers think twice about a general election. There was no sign of a Johnson 'bounce'.
Incidentally, if you try to find the 2016 EU referendum result for Brecon you won't do it. For some reason it was bundled in with Powys, so the 53.7% figure is for Powys and Brecon combined.
This is a dry run for the LibDems strategy for the next election. They are targeting Tory marginals and if Brecon is anything to go by, they will have a very big impact.
This is a dry run for the LibDems strategy for the next election. They are targeting Tory marginals and if Brecon is anything to go by, they will have a very big impact.
Now, to other matters. EU countries have been relatively restrained in criticising Brexit. The EU parliament and some people in the Commission have sometimes said something that is construed as having a bit of a dig, but leaders as far as I know have generally been very careful not to offer in public anything other than profound regret while accepting the democratic decision reached. Unlike our lot who have constantly attacked the Commission and various leaders in the EU27.
On Wednesday The Telegraph sunk to a new low on Brexit, with an absolutely disgusting rant by someone called Bruce Arnold OBE (who he?) about Ireland's prime minister and deputy prime minister. Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney have been forced into the front line of Brexit, which they didn't want or expect and which threatens Ireland's economy almost as much as our own. In my opinion they have carried themselves with a lot of restraint and dignity.
Bruce Arnold, an English journalist who has lived and worked in Ireland for over fifty years launched a shocking and vitriolic attack on the two men full of gratuitous personal insults.
He describes them as 'uncertain fools' and accuses them of 'ridiculous behaviour' in helping our 'tormentors' (the EU) and amazingly says they are, "trying to destroy, like wilful children, relations with an ancient and friendly neighbour". Given our bloody history in Ireland, I'm not sure how he could ever have written that last sentence. He goes on:
"Brussels is using the spaniel-like euro-eagerness of the Irish government for its own ends. Once Brussels gets what it wants, it will dump all interest in Irish concerns. Spoiler alert for Varadkar: once Brexit is settled, stand by for Brussels to undermine the Irish corporate tax rates which international investors find so alluring.
"What Varadkar and Coveney are doing is helping Brussels to block the path for the UK government to implement the democratic decision of the British people to leave the EU. There was a referendum. The people gave their decision. And yet a Dublin government which brags that it is republican and democratic denigrates this decision as populism. It colludes with the EU to try to have the decision dismissed and resisted."
"Brussels is using the spaniel-like euro-eagerness of the Irish government for its own ends. Once Brussels gets what it wants, it will dump all interest in Irish concerns. Spoiler alert for Varadkar: once Brexit is settled, stand by for Brussels to undermine the Irish corporate tax rates which international investors find so alluring.
"What Varadkar and Coveney are doing is helping Brussels to block the path for the UK government to implement the democratic decision of the British people to leave the EU. There was a referendum. The people gave their decision. And yet a Dublin government which brags that it is republican and democratic denigrates this decision as populism. It colludes with the EU to try to have the decision dismissed and resisted."
If we are ever going to find a solution to the backstop we will need the cooperation of both men so this sort of ad hominem stuff is not helpful. Arnold makes no suggestions that might allow frictionless trade across an invisible border between two different customs and regulatory territories. Probably because he hasn't the wit to do it and falls back on the usual British solution - curse somebody, preferably a whole race. Now I think about it, this is exactly how we got ourselves into the Brexit quagmire in the first place.
The Irish Examiner covered the story HERE. Simon Coveney responded with a tweet which was the model of restraint and perhaps a measure of the sort of man he is, a far better one than Bruce Arnold.
Looks like we’ll have to live with inaccurate, divisive articles like this for next few weeks, aimed at unsettling people - best ignored. Ireland’s position on #Brexit has been fair, consistent + honest, and it will remain so, despite provocation. https://t.co/nRLI4YjF3O— Simon Coveney (@simoncoveney) August 1, 2019
Arnold harks back to the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 and the fact that Ireland voted against it before voting for it. Arnold says the EU 'forced' Ireland to hold a second referedum. He does not explain the EU listened to Irish concerns, made changes which the Irish people then accepted. Sounds a bit more reasonable doesn't it?
The EU has done an awful lot for Ireland as Mr Arnold probably knows. I first went to Ireland in 1973 and you could not help but notice it was a poor country, with terrible roads, aging infrastructure and a mainly agricultural economy. EU Membership has transformed it.
In 1973 Ireland had a GDP per capita of $2408, compared to our $3424. So, their GDP divided by population was 30% lower than ours. We were considerably richer. Now the picture is reversed. Last year, 45 years on, our GDP per capita had risen to $42,442 - a twelve fold increase. Ireland's has gone up to $76,649 - a thirty two fold increase and 80% higher than ours.
This is what membership of the EU has 'forced' on Ireland.
