Polls opened this morning for the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the result should tell us a lot about the Johnson effect as well as the Brexit party's support and local thinking on a no deal Brexit. The LibDems have high hopes but this report suggests it may not be a cinch. However, the pro Brexit vote is likely to be split between the Tories and Farage's mob and it would be a surprise if either of them won. We will know the result tomorrow morning.
The Tories are definitely worried, apparently seeking some kind of pact with The Brexit party to stave off defeat.
But regardless what happens in Wales today, the Tories will have a mountain to climb whenever a general election happens. Jeremy Hunt said during the leadership campaign, "If we fight an election before delivering Brexit, we will be annihilated." Johnson has said he doesn't want to do so, although events may force him to. Perhaps his strategy is to force parliament to block no-deal and then go to the country on a "Tell them again" election campaign. Who knows?
But they will also be annihilated if they fight an election after Brexit is delivered.
But they will also be annihilated if they fight an election after Brexit is delivered.
Their problem will be in managing expectations against all the fantastical overblown promises made during and since the referendum about a free trade agreement with "all the advantages and none of the payouts" as Michael Gove said on The Marr Show, 8 May 2016 or what about this from Daniel Hannan, at a University of Reading debate, 6 January 2017:
“The one thing that they all have in common is that they are part of a free trade area, and that’s the one thing I think we can take for granted.”
People's Vote have incidentally issued a document quoting these two and many others to debunk the claim that we were warned about a no deal Brexit before the 2016 vote. We were not.
All those promise about getting a good deal from the EU were always impossible but with Johnson at the helm and his reputation in Europe about as low as you can get, the chances are even lower.
All those promise about getting a good deal from the EU were always impossible but with Johnson at the helm and his reputation in Europe about as low as you can get, the chances are even lower.
So, we are definitely not going to get the Utopia promised. Something we can actually take for granted. The cakes, cherries and unicorns have all been snatched away and the Conservative party is at best looking at a hugely inferior free trade deal which will take years of argument to negotiate and require us to eat a lot of crow. And to get it, the WA pretty well in its entirety will have to be accepted. During those long years of negotiations, many painful trade offs will have to be made - you want access to the single market for your financial services? The EU will ask for access to British fishing grounds, this sort of thing. Farage will be a constant sniping presence always ready with a cry of betrayal. Fishermen will be sold out yet again. It will not be pleasant and every step will be a reminder of who the supplicant is.
That was the rosy view. The other option is to carry out the threat and leave without a deal. This is the Armageddon solution, with people fighting in supermarket aisles for the last exotic fruit, troops on the street and traffic officers demanding "papers please" (or is it Papiere, bitte) from truck drivers in Kent. Instead of negotiating in Brussels, ministers will be tied up fighting fires in every corner of the country as shortages of basic goods very quickly become apparent, factories close and mayhem in general reigns unchecked. And at one second past midnight on October 31st we will have stepped through the Narnia wardrobe into what could be perpetual winter for our economy. But unlike Lucy, for us there will be no way back.
The only other solution is to ask for another extension, go for a second referendum with the chance to revoke Article 50 and pray that this time remain wins. If it does not we will be back to the same unpalatable choices.
Remember, the last time the Tories won an election with a decent majority was over thirty years ago in 1987. Thatcher won with a 102 seat margin. By 1992, against the odds, Major managed to get another five year term, most of which were spent fighting the Eurosceptics in his own party. He had a 21 seat majority and struggled to get anything done.
The next time they had a majority was 23 years later in 2015 under Cameron. He scraped a 12 seat majority, mainly because they turned on their LibDem coalition partners. After all, what are political friends for if you can't stab them in the back? In the five other general elections since 1987 they didn't get a majority at all.
Sky News were yesterday reporting comments by Phillip Lee, Tory MP and committed remainer, about his possible defection to the LibDems (he's going to spend the summer deciding). If he does go and assuming the Tories lose Brecon and Radnorshire, this would leave Johnson with no majority at all and facing the most divisive and difficult task ever undertaken by a British prime minister.
I imagine inside the Tory associations echo chamber, this kind of thing doesn't bother them at all or they think moving towards the Brexit party is an electoral winner.
But Lee is probably right, the party base is narrowing and winning elections, never an easy task for them at any time is only going to get more difficult. Thatcher won because she appealed to the aspirational working and middle class who wanted to own their own home and share in the proceeds of privatisation. Most people quickly sold their small shareholdings and the companies ended up being owned by the wealthy anyway. But she was creating her own electorate as she went along.
The Tories since 2010 have been busily doing the opposite and after ten years of austerity they have created a lot of poverty, resentment and ill-feeling against their brand.
This is not to say Johnson can't win an election. It ought to be impossible - but Jeremy Corbyn is doing his best to make sure he can.
More Brexiteer confusion
Further to my post about David Davis not understanding fundamental stuff about Brexit and seriously over-estimating our negotiating leverage, hard on his heels comes Lord Digby Jones, who manages to surpass even the 'thick as mince' Davis. He tweeted:
A No-deal Brexit will seriously damage Ireland; 90% of its trade is with the UK. It will cause mayhem in Northern France. Unemployment will reign in German car making cities. And it will be the unaccountable, unelected Eurocrats to blame. The EU is terrified of rightly being— Lord Digby Jones (@Digbylj) July 28, 2019
This was fact checked by an Irish newspaper:
"The UK accounted for 12% of total exports of goods in Ireland in 2017
and 24% of total imports of goods. In services, it accounted for 6% of
total exports and 9.3% of total imports in 2017. More recent monthly figures are also in line with these totals. In no aspect of trade are the figures close to 90%".
But he is also wrong about Germany, the Halle report that Davis misunderstood said job losses in the German car industry in a no-deal Brexit would amount to 15,000. Hardly, the end of the world and German companies will always try to retain staff anyway, so I doubt it will even get to that level.
As for 'unaccountable, unelected Eurocrats' being to blame, the negotiating mandate was set by the democratically elected leaders of the EU27. So, he's wrong on that as well.
Sterling update
The pound took a breather yesterday after its hammering the day before and steadied slightly in its no-deal Brexit induced rush to the ground. However, I note this morning it is once again headed south after overnight trading in Asia. As I type this the pound is trading at $1.2119, a 0.34% drop on its close last night. This is in spite of the US Fed announcing a cut in interest rates yesterday.
This is a great indicator of international sentiment about Brexit. Watch out for it.
Sterling update
The pound took a breather yesterday after its hammering the day before and steadied slightly in its no-deal Brexit induced rush to the ground. However, I note this morning it is once again headed south after overnight trading in Asia. As I type this the pound is trading at $1.2119, a 0.34% drop on its close last night. This is in spite of the US Fed announcing a cut in interest rates yesterday.
This is a great indicator of international sentiment about Brexit. Watch out for it.
