The naughtiest thing Theresa May ever admitted to was running through a field of wheat. Her successor could not be more different. Johnson is openly rampaging through the British constitution like a demented rhinoceros, laying waste to everything in sight, egged on by the awful Dominic Cummings. Barely two months into his premiership he is at loggerheads with the courts on several fronts as well as the legislature and still maintains we will leave the EU on October 31st deal or no deal, despite the law requiring him to request an extension in the event no deal is agreed by October 19th.
If it was possible to discern any strategy in Johnson at all, he intended to force the EU to shift position using the threat of a no deal Brexit. This has now blown up in his face. It is not the EU who have been forced to shift position - but Johnson himself.
This Times article this morning talks about a softening of the DUP's opposition to the backstop but I think the most significant point is the recognition that we now need to get a deal:
"Separately, it is understood that the government is preparing to beef up its Brexit negotiating team, reversing the decision to disband the Whitehall unit formerly headed by Sir Oliver Robbins, who led the official talks on Theresa May’s deal. 'There is an acknowledgment in Downing Street that if they can’t get an election they need a deal,' a Whitehall source said."
His belligerence has solidified opposition to a no-deal Brexit. They have passed a law to prevent it and are denying Johnson an election because they simply don't trust him to abide by it. His only option now is to seek a deal. The no-deal lever has broken and we are right back at square one.
Even if he thought he could circumvent the law, another legal move has been launched in Scotland to allow a Scottish court to apply for an extension to Article 50 in his stead.
Even if he thought he could circumvent the law, another legal move has been launched in Scotland to allow a Scottish court to apply for an extension to Article 50 in his stead.
According to Nick Watt of the BBC, European capitals are becoming a little more upbeat about the prospects of a deal. Paradoxically, having parliament remove the no deal option, rather than damaging the government's negotiating stance, has spurred them on to achieve a deal. But will it work?
The Times article suggests he is now thinking about a NI only arrangement for the backstop and that the DUP are willing to contemplate some regulatory divergence between GB and NI. The Telegraph has been briefed on this too. Don't forget all this comes hours after Johnson himself had specifically ruled out a NI only backstop. Nothing for the man with a reputation for saying anything at anytime with scant regard for consistency or truth.
The new president of the European parliament, David Sassoli, says the EU would be open to going back to a NI only proposal - not surprising since it was their idea in the first place.
Before anyone gets carried away, Arlene Foster, the sour faced DUP leader has dismissed the whole thing in a Tweet last night:
UK must leave as one nation. We are keen to see a sensible deal but not one that divides the internal market of the UK. We will not support any arrangements that create a barrier to East West trade. Anonymous sources lead to nonsense stories. #frontpages— Arlene Foster (@DUPleader) September 12, 2019
Even if such a move happened, let's not forget that Theresa May never actually put this option to MPs saying no British prime minister could ever accept it - albeit she said this after she first agreed to it but before speaking to Arlene Foster, who makes The Godfather look like a shrinking violet with an inferiority complex. Nobody knows how The House would divide on this issue.
The Herculean task before Johnson is not just to get an agreement with the EU but one that a majority in parliament can accept and even more, to do that by October 31st and get all the necessary legislation through parliament as a 44-vote short minority party. You need to suspend belief and be on serious mind bending stuff to think that's going to happen. This is not a Star Trek movie.
Johnson may soon regret wasting the last six weeks doing nothing. Barnier says the EU continue to wait for 'concrete, legally operational' solutions so nothing has been forthcoming from our side yet.
The Herculean task before Johnson is not just to get an agreement with the EU but one that a majority in parliament can accept and even more, to do that by October 31st and get all the necessary legislation through parliament as a 44-vote short minority party. You need to suspend belief and be on serious mind bending stuff to think that's going to happen. This is not a Star Trek movie.
Johnson may soon regret wasting the last six weeks doing nothing. Barnier says the EU continue to wait for 'concrete, legally operational' solutions so nothing has been forthcoming from our side yet.
Enormous pressure must be building on Johnson and Gove. The focus of Europe and the world is upon them. The pair were at the forefront of selling the whole dodgy thing to a credulous public in 2016 and are slowly coming to terms with the reality that it is going to result in the UK becoming smaller, poorer, weaker and less influential. The two journalists have had an accelerated course in what the Germans call RealPolitik, delivered via a masterclass in negotiating from the EU.
They are discovering the brutal difference between coming up with big, bold ideas in a newspaper column and implementing them in practice. Can I point you to a column by Nick Cohen published on 27th June 2016 where among other things, he said:
"The media do not damn themselves, so I am speaking out of turn when I say that if you think rule by professional politicians is bad wait until journalist politicians take over."
How true. It does not bode well for future trade talks with the EU or the USA.
They are discovering the brutal difference between coming up with big, bold ideas in a newspaper column and implementing them in practice. Can I point you to a column by Nick Cohen published on 27th June 2016 where among other things, he said:
"The media do not damn themselves, so I am speaking out of turn when I say that if you think rule by professional politicians is bad wait until journalist politicians take over."
How true. It does not bode well for future trade talks with the EU or the USA.
The DeSouza case
I posted a piece the other day (HERE) about Emma DeSouza who is challenging the government about her choice to identify as Irish having been born in NI. The government is appealing an earlier decision and they claim she is British unless she renounces British citizenship. The appeal was heard on Tuesday and she Tweeted yesterday:
On Tuesday the Home Office, on behalf of the British Govt launched a full on attempt to reinterpret or rewrite the birthright provisions of the Good Friday Agreement— Emma DeSouza (@EmmandJDeSouza) September 12, 2019
Contending that identity & citizenship are separate under the #GFA - we can identify as Irish but we are British. pic.twitter.com/67IxKhNnzN
The British government is arguing that a person in NI can identify as Irish but as a matter of law they are British. To be recognised as Irish apparently one would first have to accept you are British, then renounce your citizenship and become Irish. They also argue the GFA, being an international treaty, has no influence on UK domestic law.
It's an arcane subject but I don't see what the government is trying to achieve by dragging it through the courts at this very sensitive time. Whether they are right or wrong, it will only undermine trust in the UK abiding by the letter and spirit of the GFA
