Parliament was indeed prorogued last night amid rowdy scenes but not before Johnson lost his sixth vote out of six when parliament again failed to consent to a general election. He was left railing impotently against the opposition - an opposition which now has a 40+ seat majority thanks to him. He insisted that he would take us out of the EU on 31st October no ifs or buts although nobody (including him I suspect) can see how he can do it.
I am very confident of my £10 bet with my Selby District Council friend.
Leaving the EU without a deal would mean breaking the law, triggering the resignation of both the Solicitor and Attorney Generals (and others) and precipitating Johnson's fall for sure. Obtaining a deal at the 17th-18th October summit looks impossible, not least because we do not seem to be involved in any serious negotiations at all. If by some miracle a deal was agreed, there would have to be a short technical extension anyway otherwise various laws would not be in place on immigration and finance for example, and we would needlessly crash out when we could have had a smooth transition!
On the surface the only way we can be out on 31st October is to leave without a deal and parliament has now made this illegal. Despite the bravado Johnson is totally boxed in and he knows it.
A Dominic Grieve amendment requiring the government to release the Operation Yellowhammer documents and emails relating to prorogation was passed by 9 votes but I don't expect to see anything anytime soon - if ever. This government has a lot to hide after just six weeks.
The DeSouza case
There is an obscure legal case coming up in Belfast today which is getting little if any coverage in the press over here. Emma DeSouza is an Irish citizen born in Northern Ireland who identifies herself as exclusively Irish - not British. In 2016 when she applied for a residence card as an EU national (i.e. Irish) for her American husband she was told by the British government that being born in Northern Ireland automatically made her a British citizen and she would have to formally renounce British citizenship to become Irish.
Her husband challenged that decision on the grounds that his wife had the right to be treated as an Irish citizen under the Good Friday agreement and was, therefore, an EU citizen exercising her freedom of movement rights and the first-tier tribunal ruled in his favour. The judge, in his summing up at the tribunal, said: “Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, people of Northern Ireland are in a unique position within the United Kingdom. The British and Irish governments recognised the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves as Irish or British, or both.”
But the British government is appealing and this will begin today in Belfast.
The Irish prime minister has sided with the DeSouzas and says the British government has got it wrong.
What I cannot understand is why our government is pursuing this to the bitter end. Is there some precedent that they are afraid of being set? Is there something about Brexit that makes it vital the government win the case? On the face of it, it does not seem that important. I'll try to follow the case and let you know.
Her husband challenged that decision on the grounds that his wife had the right to be treated as an Irish citizen under the Good Friday agreement and was, therefore, an EU citizen exercising her freedom of movement rights and the first-tier tribunal ruled in his favour. The judge, in his summing up at the tribunal, said: “Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, people of Northern Ireland are in a unique position within the United Kingdom. The British and Irish governments recognised the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves as Irish or British, or both.”
But the British government is appealing and this will begin today in Belfast.
The Irish prime minister has sided with the DeSouzas and says the British government has got it wrong.
What I cannot understand is why our government is pursuing this to the bitter end. Is there some precedent that they are afraid of being set? Is there something about Brexit that makes it vital the government win the case? On the face of it, it does not seem that important. I'll try to follow the case and let you know.
Barclay continues his grand tour
Stephen Barclay continued his David Davis tribute act on a tour of Europe and gave a speech in Italy at something called the Ambrosetti Forum last Saturday. It was another one of those can-we-have-all-the-benefits-that-we-had-before speeches because of our "shared values and common goals".
He is trying to put the blame on The Commission, saying:
"Now the EU says on one hand it wants to look for “creative and flexible solutions on the border in Northern Ireland” – in fact those were the very words used by the European Council in their own guidelines. Yet at the same time the Commission has refused to progress work on alternative arrangements until after the Withdrawal Agreement has been ratified, waiting five months when we could have been working together. That rigid approach is neither creative nor flexible."
He didn't mention that his own government has failed time and again to produce any new ideas. Yesterday when Johnson visited Varadkar in Dublin, the Taoiseach pointedly mentioned that they had seen no new proposals even now. Barclay went on blaming the Commission:
"And indeed in my conversations with European counterparts, they tell me that they want to see a deal. But the risk is that the Commission sets a test that is impossible to meet. What they are in reality asking for is a UK commitment to remain in large parts of the Single Market by continuing to insist on the inclusion of the backstop."
"We need the EU to recognise this and to think with us creatively, not remain rigid or inflexible.
"To achieve a deal, we need greater creativity and flexibility from all sides and for Member States to give their negotiators room for negotiation.
"The Commission accepted at Strasbourg that alternative arrangements have merit as an alternative to the backstop. And European capitals have said they will be happy to explore the details of such arrangements."
He issued the usual threat that we intend to leave on October 31st and pointed to how much damage that will do to both sides:
"So we will be prepared, despite the media stories that seek to unnerve, and it is important that our friends and partners across Europe are also prepared. But the reality is that no deal is not in either sides’ interests. Two thirds of Irish medicine comes through Great Britain, while 60% of Irish exports go through Dover the other way. These are reciprocal issues where we have a shared desire to get it right."
This is precisely what Davis was doing in 2017 at May's behest. In fact Johnson is simply following May's well worn path, albeit at an accelerated pace, and will end up in exactly the same place.
