I don't usually engage in looking at future scenarios but I think a path through the Brexit quagmire is starting to appear. Humour me for a minute. The Cummings-Johnson axis has made a couple of very big mistakes and lost control of parliament which really ought to lead eventually to Brexit being cancelled altogether. This story in The Guardian talks of a cross-party majority moving towards bringing May's deal back for another vote and got me thinking.
The first Cummings error was the no deal do-or-die, come-what-may, whatever-it-takes strategy that was designed to put the wind up the EU but has instead put it into the sails of the opposition. The EU have been completely unmoved by it. Whereas under Theresa May nobody believed she would ever drive the nation over a cliff, Johnson has succeeded in convincing a lot of MPs that he's reckless enough to do it.
MPs of all parties could afford to indulge themselves before and vote every which way they pleased. The real prospect of no deal has now galvanised them into a unified position.
In one respect this follows the pattern of the referendum where Cummings showed you could get a majority for a negative proposition much easier than a positive one. Now such a solid majority has emerged in the House against leaving without a deal.
The next mistake was sacking the 21 rebels. This gave the opposition a substantial majority. I think the opposition was surprised when Hilary Benn's bill passed with a healthy majority of 27. It has emboldened them to think beyond the immediate victory. They could very easily become the government.
Johnson's strategy might have worked had he got a general election but, denied the chance to go to the country, these two mistakes means Johnson's minority government must face a majority opposition who are coalescing around a single policy - preventing us leaving the EU.
Last week also showed the opposition really can work together in the national interest. I wouldn't underestimate how different things could be in October when parliament returns. Opposition leaders have found common ground and perhaps a bit of mutual trust among themselves. If they can keep this unity they will become the government.
They now need to do two things. Firstly, when parliament returns they need to bring about a vote of confidence in the government and they can do this by tabling a motion themselves. This would trigger a 14 day period to allow someone else to take over from Johnson. A unity candidate like Clarke or Harman would be best. It needs to be either an MP who is not standing again or who is a remainer in a strongly remain constituency with a healthy majority.
Secondly, if the new PM of what would essentially be a de facto national government, can get into Downing Street there would be no need for a general election until next year and he or she would get access to the secret and damning Operation Yellowhammer documents.
This tweet is said to be from Oliver Murphy a freelance journalist at the ByLine Times although when I check his Twitter feed it isn't on it - but let's assume it's genuine. It does after all simply confirm what an utter catastrophe a no-deal Brexit would be and that the present government knew it all along :
The interim PM would then be able to present to the British people what a no deal exit would mean in practice. They would be able to say no British prime minister could ever genuinely contemplate doing it.
Next, they could ask the EU for an extension, long enough to get a second referendum organised with just two options:
Mrs May's deal - perhaps with a strengthened political declaration, moving closer to the single market and the customs union or even committing to become a member of both.
Or revoking Article 50 altogether and continuing our present membership with all our opt outs and the rebate we enjoy at the moment.
The ERG would be entirely marginalised and I suspect many more moderate Tory MPs would swell the numbers of this national government since it offers a real chance of bringing Brexit to a swift close with minimum disruption and ill-feeling.
As soon as the referendum result is announced giving what I expect to be an overwhelming majority for remaining in the EU we can then get on with doing what actually needs doing. It might even shut Farage up for a bit. But don't hang around waiting for that.
