The government is starting to look a bit ragged and flailing around to get out of the tight corner into which it has painted itself. Last week was a surprise to Johnson. He fully expected by now to be on a carefully orchestrated campaign trail designed by Cummings against a backdrop of surging support for the Tories. Instead they're holed up in Downing Street with long faces looking at each other.
Today will see a fourth attempt to win his first vote in The House. He will try to get the necessary two thirds majority for his cherished election but everyone expects him to fail again. Benn's bill should become law later today when it receives Royal assent.
I confess I have always thought Johnson (not his psychopathic mentor Cummings) would chicken out before a no-deal exit and I still hold to that view although he gives the impression he's daft enough to do it left to his own judgement. But others in cabinet and the civil service will prevail I think. The harm to the nation and the Tories would be immense.
I note the Sunday Times article yesterday claimed Johnson was "wobbling" and quoted someone with close links to Downing Street saying, "Boris is not in a good place. He is telling friendly cabinet ministers that he is concerned it has got out of control and is asking what he should do."
I note the Sunday Times article yesterday claimed Johnson was "wobbling" and quoted someone with close links to Downing Street saying, "Boris is not in a good place. He is telling friendly cabinet ministers that he is concerned it has got out of control and is asking what he should do."
Rudd complained there was far more effort being expended in no-deal planning than in negotiating a settlement with the EU. She, like others - Gove for example, were happy to go along with the Johnson/Cummings policy whilst it was simply used as a lever to bring the EU to heel. The instant it becomes clear we are actually planning to go over the cliff there will be more resignations and the dwindling band of supporters will get smaller still.
At the weekend it was being suggested Johnson would disobey the law until the Solicitor General Robert Buckland put out a tweet which Tom Newton-Dunn from The Sun retweeted with a comment:
👇In other words, if PM’s refusal to implement the Benn Act crosses into the illegal, Robert Buckland will resign too. I’m told Attorney General Geoffrey Cox will also join him. https://t.co/6LyzL8zaZU— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) September 8, 2019
So, that avenue was blocked.
We then heard that the UK would refuse to appoint a Commissioner which would put us in breach of our treaty obligations and force the EU to eject us. This didn't last long either. George Peretz QC tweeted this:
The following thread explained that Article 17 only sets the number of Commissioners as equal to the number of Member States. There is no specific requirement for there to be a U.K. national as Commissioner in any case. Peretz says it is not obvious that a Member State who refuses to propose a commissioner is in breach of any obligation at all. It is just damaging its own interests by not suggesting one of its own nationals to serve on the Commission.
So, that avenue is closed.
On the Sunday TV shows Raab suggested the government would obey the law but would look for loopholes to keep to the letter while still refusing to ask for an extension. The authors of the bill are confident it's watertight and there is time for the government to test it in court before October 19th.
That avenue will soon be blocked off.
This morning the next bright idea being proposed is to write, along with an official request for an extension, a letter from the PM saying we don't want an extension. I don't believe anyone thinks this will work. The EU is a stickler for rules and democracy and would side with parliament against Johnson who is hugely unpopular in Brussels.
Finally, the government may ask an EU27 member state to veto our request for us. But since the EU understand better than anyone the economic and political damage that a no-deal exit would cause and are keen not to attract the blame for it, I cannot see a single member agreeing to act on our behalf.
This is in spite of French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian saying yesterday that France would veto a request because they don't want to go through this chaos every three months. I don't believe they will veto it in the end. It is simply upping the ante.
We then heard that the UK would refuse to appoint a Commissioner which would put us in breach of our treaty obligations and force the EU to eject us. This didn't last long either. George Peretz QC tweeted this:
A brief thread on Article 17 of the Treaty on European Union. https://t.co/GIptRz0gQz— George Peretz QC🏴🏴BL🇮🇪 (@GeorgePeretzQC) September 8, 2019
The following thread explained that Article 17 only sets the number of Commissioners as equal to the number of Member States. There is no specific requirement for there to be a U.K. national as Commissioner in any case. Peretz says it is not obvious that a Member State who refuses to propose a commissioner is in breach of any obligation at all. It is just damaging its own interests by not suggesting one of its own nationals to serve on the Commission.
So, that avenue is closed.
On the Sunday TV shows Raab suggested the government would obey the law but would look for loopholes to keep to the letter while still refusing to ask for an extension. The authors of the bill are confident it's watertight and there is time for the government to test it in court before October 19th.
That avenue will soon be blocked off.
This morning the next bright idea being proposed is to write, along with an official request for an extension, a letter from the PM saying we don't want an extension. I don't believe anyone thinks this will work. The EU is a stickler for rules and democracy and would side with parliament against Johnson who is hugely unpopular in Brussels.
Finally, the government may ask an EU27 member state to veto our request for us. But since the EU understand better than anyone the economic and political damage that a no-deal exit would cause and are keen not to attract the blame for it, I cannot see a single member agreeing to act on our behalf.
This is in spite of French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian saying yesterday that France would veto a request because they don't want to go through this chaos every three months. I don't believe they will veto it in the end. It is simply upping the ante.
So Johnson's options are slowly being closed off. He had no plan in 2016, did not develop one as Foreign Secretary or in the year after he resigned and the strategy recently worked out by Cummings has blown up in his face.
In any case is it right that the most momentous decision in our recent history, which continues to divide the nation is put into effect by artifice or a clever ruse? I don't think it is.
Johnson is discovering rapidly why it is that politicians never give clear answers - there is always a caveat, a bit of equivocations to give some wriggle room that obscures the fact they are often not in control of events or to disguise their real intentions. He has not done that and is now paying the price.
His only options will be to ask for the extension, resign or revoke.
