Wednesday 25 September 2019

JOHNSON'S COMEUPPANCE BECKONS

What a day yesterday. The Supreme Court judgement was unanimous, unequivocal and quite devastating. Johnson didn't so much lose the prorogation case, he was absolutely hammered by it. It was an earth shattering blow and far worse than he could have anticipated. There was much speculation that Gina Miller would win her appeal but the final judgement was far more damning of the prime minister than anyone expected. He once said of Brexit that we should emulate Trump, go in 'bloody hard' and cause 'all sorts of chaos' but even he must now be getting fearful at what he has unleashed - not in the EU but in Westminster.

The BBC's legal correspondent Clive Colman reported the verdict breathlessly outside the Supreme Court as if he could hardly believe it himself. He had to spell it out as if trying to make sense of it all. The British prime minister no less, had just been found guilty of unlawfully advising the head of state to prorogue parliament which (quoting the judgement) had the "effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive".

I'm not certain this kind of thing happens openly even in a banana republic. This is Brexit Britain 2019.  Welcome to it.

Johnson arrives back from New York this morning after what was a bizzare address to the UN, talks with Varadkar and Tusk which failed to make any progress and into an absolute parliamentary s**tstorm.  While in the US he was defended by Trump, an equally chaotic leader who is himself facing impeachment over allegations he threatened to withhold aid to Ukraine unless they handed over dirt on Joe Biden, a political rival.  The New Yorker said it was Trump's worst day in office thus joining Johnson in a very exclusive leaders club.  It was not the sort of endorsement you want. At the joint press conference Johnson looked distinctly uneasy, like a hunted man.

The Supreme Court also effectively called the PM a liar. Paragraph 21 of the judgement quotes a discussion in cabinet on 28th August where someone (I assume Johnson) said, "Any suggestion that the Government was using this [prorogation] as a tactic to frustrate Parliament should be rebutted."  Later in paragraphs 55-56 they say this is precisely what prorogation was intended to do.

Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General and the government's most senior law officer, had apparently advised Johnson all this was perfectly legal so can expect to be thrown under a bus very soon as a way of trying to keep Johnson in office.  Rees-Mogg is also implicated since he is Lord President of The Council (I bet he loves that title, eh?) the person who oversees the Privy Council and which looks after these delicate matters. He went to Balmoral to see the Queen and presumably assured her it was all tickety-boo.

How either man could face Her Majesty again is beyond me - but then again I didn't go to Eton where shame is beaten out of you and replaced by effortless superiority - even in the presence of the monarch.

I suppose one of the benefits of being Johnson at the minute is that so many massive new personal and political disasters keep crashing over him that we soon forget the old ones. We have all stopped worrying about how he's going to deliver his exciting agenda in the forthcoming Queen's speech with a 'majority' of  minus 43.  As for last weekend's revelations about his 'friendship' with Jennifer Arcuri, that's ancient history now and has  almost been forgotten.  Mind you the London Assembly seem intent on digging it all up again with demands for an enquiry into the whole murky affair.

He has broke numerous records of epic failure in his first two months in office and may well be the first prime minister to face PMQs via video link from Belmarsh prison.

The Conservative party's bĂȘte noire John Bercow, lost no time in taking up the final cudgel before his retirement on October 31st (assuming he doesn't have a change of heart) and has called for parliament to resume today at 11:30 am.  I note there is talk of bringing contempt of parliament proceedings against Johnson with demands to see all the paperwork and internal memos about prorogation that the government wanted to keep secret.  What an incriminating treasure trove that might prove.

And isn't it quite amazing how people who were saying a couple of weeks ago that prorogation had nothing to do with Brexit are now claiming the Court's decision to nullify prorogation is a move by the judiciary to stop Brexit.  How is that possible?

There are calls from every quarter for Johnson to quit and he will be under huge pressure in the coming days. The FT calls on him to resign saying the ruling left a stain on his character and his competence - both of which can barely be seen under all the previous stains in my opinion, a bit like Sir Les Patterson's tie.

This morning on Radio 4 the SNP's leader Ian Blackford was talking in emollient terms about working with Labour and other opposition parties to remove Johnson via a GE at a time of their own choosing and in a controlled way while avoiding the risk of a no deal Brexit.  Opposition parties and rebel MPs have a 43 seat majority in the House. The only thing preventing them taking full control of Brexit right now and bringing it to a conclusion is themselves. They have the opportunity, the motive and the means to do it.

The Telegraph carried out a swift poll and report that the public back the Supreme Court by about 2:1 (50% to 29%) but they also claim 60% of the public just want us to "get on and leave the EU", including 35% of 2016 Remain voters. I am bound to say this is what the government has been trying to do for three years but can't - as you would have thought people might have noticed.  I think if you offered the electorate a chance to remain in the EU they would opt for that as well - anything to end the nightmare.

Johnson likened Brexit to the torture of Prometheus who had his liver pecked out by an eagle every day, the organ growing back each night as the Titan remained secured to a rock.  This analogy must have slipped his mind when they were looking for things to paint on the side of a big red bus.

Finally, Sir Ivan Rogers, our former UKREP to the EU, spoke in Newcastle yesterday and Business Live reported:

"Sir Ivan resigned after a confidential memo expressing his view that a Brexit deal could take a decade was leaked in 2016.

"But he said he now thought that may be an underestimation of how long it will take and said he feared that if the UK crashed out without a deal, it would get “very toxic, very fast” as politicians here and in Europe blamed each other."

He has been proved right at every stage and now thinks ten years was an underestimate.  Since we have spent three and a half years on the easy bit and can't agree on that, I think he's right.

When Johnson was appointed PM we thought things would be chaotic. It's the only thing he's managed to excel at.  All else is failure.

Not long to go.  His comeuppance is beckoning him on.