We will learn what the Supreme Court thinks about Johnson's five week prorogation of parliament at around 10:30 this morning. It will be his 'judgement day' as one BBC reporter on Radio 4 called it. The court may decide to keep well clear of the whole issue and find it was indeed a matter of high policy, but if they agree with the Scottish court he is in real trouble. If there is even a hint of him misleading the Queen there will be calls for him to go.
It's hard to see how the Queen could ever have any confidence in anything he says in the future. This is always the problem with being a known liar. Nobody trusts you.
Later this morning, either his government's whole chaotic approach to Brexit could be thrown into even more disarray or the SC could simply allow him to carry on dragging the nation towards a humiliating disaster of one sort or another.
There is no sign of movement from the EU, although Johnson, on his way to the climate summit in New Yorks, infuriatingly said he was "cautiously optimistic" about persuading the EU to back his proposals. Those are the ones from last week that we know the EU will never accept. Personally, this kind of stuff would drive me mad if I was Barnier or Juncker. It's like speaking to an imbecile.
But ever patient outwardly and just in case Johnson really hadn't got the message, Michel Barnier, speaking in Berlin, said that "based on current UK thinking, it is difficult to see how we arrive at a legally operable solution that fulfils all the objectives of the backstop". Adding that the talks were now in a "very difficult sensitive phase". He can say that again.
The Metro has a nice short video of Barnier's speech where he says:
"The UK government also wants the EU to change the way the internal market and border controls operate after Brexit - [pause]. As I am sure you will understand this is unacceptable".
Johnson and Cummings and the ERG have convinced themselves, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that the EU are going to bend at the last minute and grant us all the concessions we have demanded. Treaty changes to give us frictionless market access while diverging from regulatory alignment, no border in Ireland while different customs tariffs apply on either side and so on.
Leo Varadkar also intervened yesterday to confirm the EU and Ireland are not about to fold and why would they? One has to be realistic about our position and theirs. Nobody makes concessions from a strong position when it's not in their interests.
Johnson's failing strategy is clear. Send Barclay round European capitals issuing threats and sabre rattling and telling them how badly they will be impacted by Brexit while continuing to loudly proclaim we will leave on October 31st with or without a deal. This is all perfectly transparent to the EU and it is not going to work. It's a trial of strength that we are bound to lose.
What does it tell us? That we are desperate to get a deal.
But there will be no new deal. The only legally operable one on the table is the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May. Parliament has rejected it three times but with ever decreasing majorities. If it returned a fourth time it may pass but it's a huge gamble and the ERG and probably the entire Tory party will never forgive Johnson.
He may even have found a legal way to take us out without a deal, but this would have a devastating impact on the nation and I for one have never thought he will do it. If he did, and the scenarios described in the yellowhammer papers actually happened, it would be a total humiliation as we inflict something on ourselves that no modern nation has ever willfully and deliberately done before. We would be a laughing stock with our international reputation for pragmatism in tatters and in the weakest position possible - begging the EU for a deal. More likely Johnson would end up in court anyway.
I think we can discount a no deal Brexit altogether. If it even begins to look like an option expect mass resignations from cabinet and for parliament to step in.
The only other option is to ask for another delay which Johnson has said repeatedly he would not do. This would also be a massive humiliation for him, the Tory party as well as the nation.
If it comes to a choice, as I expect, between May's deal or another extension I think we will be looking at the beginning of the end for Brexit. It will demonstrate that there is no deal better than the one we've got which is both available and acceptable to parliament and the people.
It will be time for a People's Vote.
