Saturday 5 October 2019

BACK TO THE BACKSTOP

When our EU withdrawal negotiators went to Brussels earlier this week they apparently expected the EU to take Johnson's proposals seriously and enter "the tunnel" - a period of intense final negotiations where both sides agree to a sort of purdah - this weekend so that a final deal could be agreed next week. Instead the EU sent them away and told them to come back on Monday with something else, something that might actually form the basis of future discussions. Meanwhile the EU negotiators are spending the weekend relaxing. It doesn't look like they need us more than we need them.

The Commission spokeswoman (HERE) said at a press briefing afterwards:

"There are, as we have said, problematic points in the United Kingdom's proposal and further work is needed – but that work needs to be done by the United Kingdom and not the other way around. We would remind you that it's the UK leaving the European Union and not the EU leaving the UK."

In other words it is the UK's responsibility to come up with workable, fully formed and legally operable solutions and the EU is not going to sit down and help.  I suspect the problems are still quite fundamental, especially on the customs border with Ireland and the Stormont veto. 

Johnson now has a serious decision to make this weekend. Does he re-jig the proposals and move closer to the EU's position?  Sooner or later, through logic, red lines and the GFA, we will arrive at something that is so close to the present backstop as to make any substantial changes a waste of time. This will expose the weakness of our position, and leave Cummings' comments about take-it-or-leave-it looking particularly silly. 

Or does he refuse to budge and trigger both sides into emergency preparations for a no-deal exit?

If you want to read how the EU see Johnson's proposals you might want to read this twitter thread from Mujtaba Rahman who worked for HM Treasury and the EU Commission and who did a tour of Brussels last week. He appeared on Newsnight (HERE - about 25m, 40 secs in) last night:
He says the European Parliament (EP) initially wanted to reject the proposals outright and I wouldn't underestimate the difficulty Johnson will have in getting anything other than the present WA through the EP. Member States wanted to be more diplomatic and Juncker's conciliatory reaction was thought to be the right line.

Rahman says, "From EU's perspective, the only way to resolve these [customs] issues is for NI to remain fully in EU customs territory - as I've argued previously. Every senior official I spoke to is extremely clear on this point: full solidarity"

He thinks the EU might be flexible on governance and could make concessions on Stormont but not on the crucial customs union. But backtracking on that would cost Johnson the support of the DUP and probably the ERG too.

The moment of truth is certainly coming up fast.

Rahaman adds that "officials have earmarked the possibility of a second Council one week after 17-18 October meeting (24-25th) to secure 'political agreement'.  Even here, however, a technical extension would be needed. That is, EU officials see no way around an extension - even in a deal scenario. But the mood is glum. One senior EU official says there's 'no hope'. Just spinning wheels till next Friday."

Elsewhere, in a case rumbling through the Scottish courts to force the PM to obey the law (surely a first in our entire history?) we learn from papers lodged by government lawyers that Johnson WILL send a letter asking for an extension after all.  If anybody thought this was a change of policy though this tweet followed:
Lawyers for the claimants argued the prime minister could not be trusted and his tweet simply reinforced that impression. As I have said before the PM is behaving like an imbecile. A decision is expected on Monday.

ITV looked at ways Johnson might circumvent the Benn Act and have several possibilities but I think he will not do it.  The Benn Act is not like a speeding offence. Imagine frustrating the clearly expressed will of parliament in order to throw the nation into the chaos of food and medicine shortages. It would not look good on the Tory party CV for a start and if anything like it is pursued seriously we can expect mass resignations from the cabinet and senior law officers as well as civil servants.  No, it might exist in Johnson's mind but it will never happen.

Rory Stewart resigned from the Conservative party in order to run as an independent candidate for London Mayor but not before reading out a letter sent from Johnson's house master when he was at Eton, Martin Hammond, to Boris Johnson's father, Stanley. This was at the Letters Live event 2019 where letters about celebrities are read out to an audience.

Boris Johnson has always believed rules - on  behaviour, morality as well as the law - apply to other people and not him. But the EU is a legal construct and he is about to find out, perhaps for the first time in his life that the rules do apply to him.
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