Johnson had his 24 hours of glory from Wednesday morning to Thursday afternoon. He published his "fair and reasonable" alternative arrangements plan to cheers and back slapping from his supporters even as the first murmurings were being heard that perhaps the EU were not entirely happy. Tory MPs were elbowing each other aside in the Commons yesterday afternoon to offer congratulations. By early evening the last rites were being delivered.
The European Parliament press release said the "proposals do not match even remotely what was agreed as a sufficient compromise in the backstop." Johnson has produced something that might get through the UK parliament but isn't acceptable to the EU. We have gone back on commitments made in 2017 and the two sides are further apart than before with very little trust or goodwill left in Brussels.
To say his plan for NI is a dog's breakfast would be a kindness. No political party or trade body in NI is in favour of it, except the DUP. Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair's Chief of Staff says the idea that giving Stormont a vote every four years is democratic is illusory:
"As everyone who lives in Northern Ireland knows, the problem with Stormont, apart from the fact it hasn't been in existence for the last two years, is that the cross-community arrangements mean that both the DUP and Sinn Fein have a veto.
"So rather than letting the majority in Northern Ireland, which is pro-Remain, have the say in whether membership of the single market continues to apply, the decision is being put in the hands of the pro-Brexit DUP.
This of course is in addition to all the other problems of customs and borders. The onus is now back on Johnson. His chief negotiator is on his way to Brussels to explain the solution and Leo Varadkar has called on the government to publish the secret legal text because he claims it contradicts what Johnson has been saying in public. This should come as no surprise, Johnson doesn't do detail and like most journalists, probably didn't understand what he was saying.
However, an important principle has been conceded. It is not, as Dominic Cummings is alleged to have said, a take-it-or-leave-it offer and we have revealed that we need a deal desperately, otherwise Johnson would have refused any more compromises. But make no mistake, his new deal is on life support.
His problem is the same as Mrs May's. You can submit any number of proposals which either side can accept but finding one that both sides will agree to is near, if not actually, impossible.
Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor and a man who knows and understands the issue like no other, has written a piece in Prospect Magazine with the title: Fiasco: three years of grinding failure on Brexit is reaching its inevitable nadir. He says:
"Theresa May tried briefly to solve the central riddle of the Irish 'trilemma' — but in the end slumped to the table defeated, opting instead to just park the entire UK in the customs union. So having rejected the May deal which prioritised an open Irish border over a hard Brexit, it should come as no surprise that Johnson—elected to the Tory Party leadership on a hard Brexit platform—has now chosen to prioritise Brexit over the border."
Leo Varadkar, who has played a blinder, speaking yesterday, laid it on the line saying there are only five ways to avoid a hard border in Ireland, four of which would be acceptable to the Irish government, and they are:
- A united Ireland
- Ireland rejoining the UK
- The UK staying in the EU
- The UK staying in the single market and customs union
- Or the backstop.
And in case anyone gets the idea that Johnson's plan has been well received by the community in Northern Ireland (which voted 56% to remain) have a look at this tweet:
@pmdfoster this is on a cold wet and rainy night. Don’t ever let the DUP or Tories play down the concern and anger in the border and wider north of Ireland community https://t.co/8NUUrHHTqO— IG (@irishgooner49) October 3, 2019
There is NO chance of reaching a deal between now and October 19th. And I cannot see Johnson in the next week or so addressing the nation from outside Downing Street in sombre tones telling us to gird ourselves against the disruption and chaos of a no-deal Brexit coming down the track. Apart from it being illegal, he isn't going to do it anyway.
Another delay is coming and it will be the last one. No government is going to set a new deadline and fail to meet it. May tried and failed. Johnson has tried and will fail. Brexit itself will fail. The only solution is another election with a risk that we wind up with another hung parliament or we have a second confirmatory vote.
When Johnson and Gove were swanning round the country in 2016 persuading people to vote for Brexit because we would hold all the cards after our "independence day" they could never have imagined we would end up a month before a twice extended deadline, still flailing around for a solution to the Irish border issue.
Which mature democracy would decide its own future based on something cobbled together in a flat panic at the last second?
The deal is being forged on the anvil of reality by a lot of insane dwarfs all hammering away like wild eyed maniacs with no idea what they're doing except hoping something emerges that might look remotely acceptable.
Is it a good foundation for the future? No.
This is why a second referendum is now impossible to avoid.
