Wednesday 2 October 2019

THE NEW DEAL - NOBODY WILL BE HAPPY

The RTE report on Monday night which claimed the UK government was planning customs clearance sites 5-10 miles either side of the Irish border was dismissed as being out of date by prime minister Johnson on Radio 4 yesterday morning. Bear in mind the proposal came from one of the non papers submitted the week before last. That a proposal 10 days old is out of date tells me we are just floundering around reaching for anything that might have the slightest chance of working. 

He said he will table concrete plans 'imminently' but The Telegraph (Johnson's old employer) has somehow (I wonder how that happened?) got hold of a summary of what this 'new deal' will look like and published it last night.  

Anyone who was concerned that they might have come up with one of the 'abundant' solutions and that a deal was therefore in prospect can relax and stop worrying. The new deal seems designed to fail.

Nick Robinson on the Today programme this morning couldn't get his head round it and I'm not surprised. It is dizzyingly complicated, dubbed two borders and four years, the 'plan' is to have regulatory alignment north-south and thus NO border between the Republic and NI for GOODS and agricultural products, but for NI to leave the EU customs union so there is NO border for customs purposes between NI and GB.

You will have spotted that this means NI will now have TWO borders. A customs border north-south and a regulatory one east-west.

After four years the NI Assembly will be allowed a vote on whether these arrangements continue or if they should end the regulatory alignment with the EU and align themselves with GB. They don't have a choice about the customs side of things.

Peter Foster, the Telegraph's Europe editor, who wrote the article says (my emphases):

"To further facilitate this, the UK will also demand, within the next 10 days, that the EU grants Northern Ireland blanket exemptions from the EU’s Union Customs Code (UCC), the requirements of which will be supplanted by so-called alternative arrangements.

 "A source familiar with the contents of the proposals said that 'in effect, the British are demanding that the EU puts in legal text an agreement not to have any checks at the border in any circumstances'. 

 "The source added: 'It is worth noting that since 2017 the European Commission has not agreed a single UCC derogation [exemption] for the UK in a deal scenario, or Ireland in the event of a ‘no deal’."

The really amazing thing is that the government does not intend to ask for an extension to the transition period - assuming we get one - which ends on December 31st 2020, in fifteen months time. We apparently expect to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with the EU in that time and leave with a fully independent trade policy, free to pursue trade deals with the rest of the world.  Nobody I know expects this to be done in less than five years and it will probably take much longer.

The other point to take is from a tweet by Foster last night:
This is to be our final take-it-or-leave-it offer. After three and a half years of delay and prevarication we won't be hanging around if the other side don't like it.  Foster himself says, "I cannot for the life of me see how this flies; or could ever be intended to fly."

Northern Ireland businesses in the form of Manufacturing NI, a body akin to the CBI, tweeted:
I forecast that Johnson's new deal will not be acceptable to the DUP, Sinn Fein, the EU, parliament, Ireland, industry on both sides of all the borders or indeed anyone at all.

Amidst all this I noted on the Guardian's rolling news page a report about MPs Pat McFadden and Angela Eagle asking questions in the House yesterday about section 10 (2) (b) of the Withdrawal Act 2019.

I know you are all familiar with this but I had to go away and have a look at it.  This is what it says:

(2) Nothing in section 8, 9 or 23(1) or (6) of this Act authorises regulations which—

 (a) diminish any form of North-South cooperation provided for by the Belfast Agreement (as defined by section 98 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998), or

 (b) create or facilitate border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland after exit day which feature physical infrastructure, including border posts, or checks and controls, that did not exist before exit day and are not in accordance with an agreement between the United Kingdom and the EU.

In other words, the government's own law expressly forbids border posts, checks or controls that did not exist before Brexit day. McFadden and Eagle wanted to know if the government had an obligation to obey the law.  James Duddridge, the junior half-wit answering questions for the government told the MPs he didn't know but in this convoluted way: 

"I am tempted to give a simple answer to a straight question, but, because it relies on detail, I will write to the right hon. Gentleman and ​confirm what I think is the bleeding obvious. Given what he says, it seems to me that there is an obvious answer—[Hon. Members: “Give it!”] I have said I will give him a good answer and make sure it is proper in relation to that Act."

It sounds as if it had come as a complete surprise to Duddridge. 

The BBC have a good explainer HERE written by Newsnight's Nick Watt which suggests the EU are not optimistic about reaching a deal or even if that is what Johnson actually wants.

The Road Haulage Association in NI says any checks will be bad for business and will lead to delays and increased costs. They want to retain unfettered access both ways.

Johnson told ITV his new deal did not involve any new physical infrastructure, "What we are saying is those checks don’t need to take place at the border, they don’t need to necessitate, they don’t need to involve new infrastructure, but you must, and this where rubber hits road, but you must have checks of some kind."

The proposals seen by The Telegraph do not explain how or where these 'checks' take place.

An item in The Journal, an Irish publication, shows pictures of 16 new 'customs cars' being delivered to HMRC in the province and in the article a spokesman for the Revenue tells the paper that some are new while others are replacements but it brings the number of vehicles up to 242!  I confess to being amazed at this number of customs cars along a 310 mile border. It shows what a problem smuggling is now - when there is regulatory and tariff alignment.

Johnson has implied that his government would be awkward and act as a 'spoiler' to block things in the EU if we are 'forced' to stay in after October 31st. This is no way to treat your 'friends and partners' who are only obeying our law as passed democratically by our own legislature.

He also says people can get 'confused'. Remember he went to Luxembourg a couple of weeks ago where he learned about the customs problem, for the first time it seems, and it's quite obvious he is now trying to jury rig something together at short notice when the best minds in Europe have been unable to find a solution after three years.

It would be a shock if they really have found something that works.
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