Thursday 3 October 2019

JOHNSON'S NEW DEAL - REACTION

With just about four weeks to go to our supposed exit from the EU we finally start to get some details about the present government's thinking on what sort of deal they want.  Johnson's published letter to Juncker is HERE alongside an explanatory note, just seven pages long, HERE.  There is apparently also a legal text of unknown length, setting all this out which has not been published.  The questions now are is it realistic and will it succeed?

For the best explanation of some of the more fundamental problems I would suggest reading Richard North's blog post this morning which you can see HERE. He is the acknowledged expert on these matters.

North points out that NI will not be in the single market but will simply be in a 'zone of regulatory compliance' (paragraph 1.(c)) which is not the same thing at all.  The zone will be covered by the governance framework set out in the previous protocol (paragraph 7(c)) which is complex and I don't even pretend to follow it. However, the Irish protocol in the WA effectively covered NI being in the SM and the CU so I suspect it allowed EU control of market surveillance and enforcement measures in most areas. The new idea is far looser and probably far more difficult for the EU to accept.

Hence, the zone of regulatory compliance may well not be enough to avoid checks at the border with the Republic.

Also, Raoul Ruparel, a former special adviser to Mrs May with experience of the Brexit negotiations over the past three years tweeted that it is at best a mixed bag:
You can read the whole thread but the last tweet is this:

"For all these reasons, I cannot see EU & IRE agreeing to these proposals, may not even see as basis for negotiations. I suspect they would rather gamble on an extension & election. Given I want to see UK leave with a deal, I hope I am wrong & wish Govt the best of luck" 

Juncker has described the ideas set out as 'problematic' and generally they have not been well received. The European Parliament Brexit Steering Group will publish a detailed response later today so we'll see what they and the Commission have to say.

We seem to be heading for a reversal of positions where the UK Parliament might accept the deal (not Labour, the LibDems or the SNP) but the EU will not. This brings me to one of the stranger aspects of Johnson's plan. The DUP are apparently and surprisingly 'onside' and hence so are the ERG.  This is very odd.

In March this year the DUP expressly refused to support May's deal on the grounds that the backstop "has the potential to create an internal trade border within the United Kingdom and would cut us off from our main internal market, being Great Britain".

But in May's deal there was perfect alignment on both regulatory standards and customs so there was no internal trade border at all.  But now Johnson's deal specifically creates such an internal trade border. There is nothing potential about it. The trade border is real and actual and would be set out clearly in law. Yet the DUP are perfectly happy with it. How does that work?

I assume money comes into it somewhere and Johnson has already promised more funding for the province (although he has promised just about everyone more money). But the prospect of a veto every four years by Stormont will also be a factor. This will be as acceptable to the DUP as it will be unacceptable to the EU.  Every four years there will be a risk of a hard regulatory border in Ireland coming along twelve months later. Who would accept that?

Robert Peston thinks the whole deal could be dead in 48 hours as he writes in The Spectator:

"The biggest hole, as you would expect, is that EU government heads are being asked to take on trust that all the legal and technical preparations necessary for checks on goods and food flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, and all the legal and technical preparations for customs checks away from the Northern Ireland border, will be completed by the end of 2021 at the very last.

"2021 is the last date for the whole UK to exit from the EU’s single market and customs union (the preferred date for this full Brexit for Johnson is the end of 2020).

"The whole point of that notorious backstop that Brexiters hate and Johnson wants to dump, is that EU leaders don’t believe Johnson’s Northern Ireland customs and market preparations can be completed in time."

Buzzfeed are reporting that Johnson's chief negotiator, David Frost, was asked in recent negotiations about how these new proposals would cope with smuggling and had to admit the system only worked for people and companies who wanted to comply. This is another fundamental flaw.  Every hard border in the world could be scrapped provided only law abiding users crossed it. Johnson's deal would be an absolute bonanza for smugglers.

And Buzzfeed have also seen an internal memo from No 10 advising Tory MPs what to do if the EU reject the proposals. They are to say the EU is "crazy" and that negotiating a deal with them is "impossible".  The blame game will begin shortly, although I assume the EU are ready for it and won't reject the plan outright but will suggest there are areas to clarify and discuss while the clock ticks down to parliament forcing another delay.

On the polling front, YouGov have published the result of another survey, the 129th, asking: In hindsight do you think the decision to leave the EU was RIGHT or WRONG. The answer is 40% still think it was right while 49% think it was wrong, the third biggest lead on record.  

The message is slowly getting through.
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