The front page headline in the print edition of yesterday's Telegraph was the final proof we have indeed lost the plot and that Brexit is a self-inflicted wound that will not only damage our economy but also make us a pariah in Europe. "Britain will abandon all EU rules after Brexit" the leading anti-EU broadsheet of the right wing press blared out, as if it was a desirable aim let alone possible.
I am afraid I've lost access to my free articles at The Telegraph so I can't show you the full article as I used to without having to pay. However, the on-line edition's headline for the same article is slightly less provocative: "Boris Johnson insists there will be 'no alignment' with the EU after Brexit" and gives the clue as to where The Telegraph got its story. This was from Friday's debate where Johnson opened by saying there will be 'no alignment' with EU rules in the future trade agreement. It has still not learned that the PM never tells the truth except by accident and he was reading a prepared statement so it was definitely a lie,
In a fit of hubris The Telegraph goes on to claim, "EU leaders reacted by saying that Britain could not have tariff free, frictionless trade unless it signed up to EU regulations and standards", almost daring the EU to tip us over the cliff edge at the end of 2020.
Even if this didn't raise huge obstacles to any sort of trade deal, why do it anyway? Why throw sand in the tank of your own economy's most productive engines? What possible benefit can it be to cripple your own economy? It makes zero sense. Why would anyone deliberately choose different standards to their main trading partner? This is just perverse.
I have asked Nigel Adams, our MP, which EU laws have been forced on us against our will? He was unable to answer. I have heard Ken Clarke ask the same question in the House several times, again without an answer. I have never heard any leave voter suggest a single EU law for repeal. Jacob Rees-Mogg has admittedly called for the 3 crop rule to be scrapped, a return of filament bulbs and lifting the neonicotinoids ban but none of that is remotely likely. So, Rees-Mogg apart, I'm not sure anybody in this country is desperate to scrap any EU rules, let alone ALL of them.
Amazingly, as evidence that the EU will buckle and give us a zero tariff and zero quota FTA, The Telegraph quote 'a senior government source' (Cummings?) saying, "EU Officials claimed they wouldn't reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, but they did as it was plainly in our shared interests". Their implied reading of October's negotiation is that we 'forced' the EU to give us a deal they had already offered and which they preferred but we had refused. A deal Johnson himself said no British prime minister could ever accept. Having accepted it he now claims it as proof we dictated the terms.
This is like General Jodl, after signing Germany's unconditional surrender in 1945 in Rheims, returning to Berlin and declaring victory. It's quite bizarre.
The 'proof' that the EU will back down in the face of Britain's demand to have completely different rules while still pursuing a free trade deal is actually cast iron evidence that they won't. Even more bizzarely, Johnson frequently cites our perfect alignment as the reason he WILL be able to negotiate a quick, deep and comprehensive free trade deal. But from day one he seems to be abandoning any attempt to keep even partly aligned.
Johnson alone seems to have made the momentous decision to diverge completely with no consultation and based on nothing more than jingoism.
Geraint Davies MP (Labour: Swansea) gave what I thought was the best summary of the ludicrous proposition:
"We are leaving the single market, one of the primary architects of which was, of course, Margaret Thatcher, who saw it as probably the most perfect free and fair trade market in the world. Today we are saying not just that we will have no alignment—or that we will not have dynamic alignment—but that we will have dynamic misalignment. In other words, as the European Union changes its rules, we will change our rules in a different way. That means the prospects of agreeing a deal within 12 months will become vanishingly small, and the prospects of knowing that we will agree a deal in six months—by June—are even smaller."
A few weeks ago, a group of the most important trade bodies including aviation and chemicals wrote to Gove and Barclay pleading to remain aligned with EU rules and saying, "regulatory divergence would pose a serious risk to our sectors" will result in "huge new costs and disruptions to many of our member companies", and an "inability to shape safety rule making" which "will make it much more difficult to bring UK technology to market".
Despite this Johnson is set on a perverse policy of 'dynamic misalignment' to borrow Mr Davies' phrase.
Allied to this topic, Michel Barnier has written a piece for the Project Syndicate website, setting out the EU's goals for next year. On trade the level playing field conditions that Brussels sets so much store by are clear.
"The EU – including its trade commissioner, Phil Hogan – will engage in these negotiations in a positive spirit, with the willingness to make the most of the short time available. But, like the UK, we will keep our strategic interests in mind. We know that competing on social and environmental standards – rather than on skills, innovation, and quality – leads only to a race to the bottom that puts workers, consumers, and the planet on the losing side. Thus, any free-trade agreement must provide for a level playing field on standards, state aid, and tax matters."
The Daily Mail seems almost gleeful as it reports Barnier accusing Johnson of a race to the bottom on social, environmental and employment standards. This will be Johnson's ephemeral row of the summer, after which we will fold and align ourselves meakly with EU standards. All this bellicose stuff is for addled Telegraph readers and the ERG who are mostly away with the fairies.
There is zero prospect of the UK misaligning itself with EU standards. It would achieve nothing except the unnecessary burdening of great swathes of the UK economy with double regulations and would, as one senior EU source told The Telegraph lead to a WTO+ trade deal at best. I confidently forecast it will never happen. Will The Telegraph then make a song and dance about it? No.
The next crisis will emerge in May or June 2020 when the time comes to decide if we want a one or two year extension. Johnson has already ruled any extension out both politically and legally. He has now tied both hands behind his back as he prepares to enter the ring. Ronan McCrea, a professor of constitutional and European law at University College London, in an Irish Times article thinks Johnson may try the same 11th hour U-turn as he did in October but the EU will find it legally difficult.
I don't believe the EU will allow Johnson to use this tactic as a threat at all. If no extension is agreed by July 1st they will offer us a take it or leave it deal and move towards planning for WTO terms. This after all must have been behind the original idea of having six months notice of the cliff edge. Talks may continue but they will watch the pressure from the trade bodies ratchet up until the capitulation safety valve reaches its limit.
Following on from yesterday's post, I note the from the Russian news agency Tass that Johnson told an Estonian news agency that he 'hoped' for better relations with Russia. This is a nation led by a "common criminal masquerading as head of state" which routinely murders its own citizens in Britain. The PM was on a visit to serve Christmas lunch to our troops stationed in the tiny Baltic state. We have about 900 troops alongside other nations to defend to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
Putin must be quaking in his boots.
Finally, the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg has come in for a lot of criticism because of perceived bias towards Brexiteers, something which she and the BBC have always denied. Now The Daily Express is quoting her from her so-called Brexitcast saying history will 'not look kindly' on those who tried to 'undo Brexit'.
Putin must be quaking in his boots.
Finally, the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg has come in for a lot of criticism because of perceived bias towards Brexiteers, something which she and the BBC have always denied. Now The Daily Express is quoting her from her so-called Brexitcast saying history will 'not look kindly' on those who tried to 'undo Brexit'.
I think history will look kindly on us. As the disaster unfolds next year she is about to find out why we did it.
