The Withdrawal Agreement Bill easily passed its second reading yesterday by 124 votes and sets us on our way to leaving the EU at the end of January. It was hardly a surprise given the Tory majority of slavishly compliant and novice MPs. I am afraid we are stuck with Johnson for the next five years, a man who increasingly looks like an actor playing a fictional prime minister in a satirical comedy, a man who exists only to have fun poked at him. Unfortunately, Brexit for many of us is not in the least bit funny.
I want to quote the words of a newly elected Scottish MP, Alyn Smith (SNP), making his maiden speech during second reading of the WAB (Col 187 HERE) and far more eloquent than me:
"...this is a momentous day for some in this House, it is a day of deep sadness for many of us. I assure you, Mr Deputy Speaker, that today’s vote will live in infamy. It is not the end of Brexit; it is the start of something far worse."
And then:
"I counsel Government Members to beware of hubris, for in what they call their victory today lie the seeds of a far greater defeat. I understand from previous interventions that there are some scholars in the House. May I suggest some festive reading for them all: the history of Czechoslovakia? Start around January 1991 and see what happens. A Union—the United Kingdom is a Union of nations; do us the courtesy of using the right words—can only be maintained and endure if there is consent and respect. It is an arithmetic fact that in all our recent votes, Scotland has not consented to where we are now, and the actions of this House prove that there is a lack of respect for Scotland’s democracy."
Students of history will recall the speech of Franklin D Roosevelt about a date that would "live in infamy" after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941. It is a measure of how bitter the struggle for separation is. Make a note of Alyn Smith - he is a rising star, a former MEP and speaks well. He is more than a match for Johnson's flowery debating society language.
The PM would do well to see the same drive for nationalism in the SNP as in his colleagues in the ERG. Yesterday marked another step along the road to inevitable Scottish independence. This is however, just one of the many serious impacts of Brexit that Johnson was warned about in 2016 but which he dismissed as scaremongering. We are indeed entering a period far worse than we have endured so far. The shadow boxing is close to an end and the serious stuff will begin in February.
I sometimes think I'm in the middle of one of those complex, hard to follow, multi layered TV dramas where a devious section of the security services are distorting events to create an alternative reality. Friends and family are being gaslighted. Your warnings are ignored. Relatives are short with you if you even raise Brexit. It has become almost blasphemous to offer any criticism. If Brexit was a work of fiction, the author would be accused of gross exaggeration. There could surely be no basis for thinking half a nation could be duped? But this is precisely what's happened.
We remainers read the details. We believe the experts. The pitfalls and downsides are blindingly obvious to us. Leavers are invariably the opposite. Their understanding comes from a half understood myth written by journalists out of the Johnson school of ridiculous and mendacious hyperbole. Detailed explanations or reports by expert bodies are not enough to counter a slogan. Our entire foreign policy has been reduced to what amounts to nothing more than a jingle.
Half the British people are the victims of this gigantic con trick called Brexit. I am comforted knowing that usually everything works out in the end when the truth comes out as I am convinced it will on Brexit.
For the moment though the present phase is likely to end not with a bang but a whimper as ITV's Welsh Political editor Adrian Masters says.
It's as if an entire nation has been hijacked by a small cabal. A narrow majority was persuaded to vote to isolate themselves from Europe by thirty years of mythmaking and a six month intensive campaign of lies. At the end of January we will have passed the point of no return. There will be no going back for years. But how many years?
A Twitter thread by Mr Brendan May gives his ideas:
He makes some good points. If I can summarise, he says what the 2019 election proved is a government to the left of Blair/Brown is never going to be elected, we are not getting PR voting so we have to live with FPTP and kicking off a campaign to rejoin in the New Year would be insane, driving leavers away.For what it's worth, as wounds from #Brexit and #GE2019 are licked, this is what I think needs to happen (and not happen) next (THREAD).— Brendan May (@bmay) December 15, 2019
He believes a new moderate, centrist party is needed involving New Labourites, Lib Dems and Greens as well as centre right Tories led by a Macron style figure. The priority is to be build a strong political force that is ready to take over when it all goes wrong. He is thinking in terms of ten years. The new party must be pro-European but not dogmatic about rejoining the EU.
Mr May could be right but I think he's being too pessimistic. I think the problems of Brexit will become clear much more quickly, as early as the end of next year. How long does it take to realise you have made a mistake?
The rich cabal pulling Johnson's strings seem to think we will just give up. If we do that it means they have won and that cannot be allowed to happen. The huge grassroots campaign built over the last three years must become a secret army melting into the population but influencing opinion by whatever means is possible.
Johnson must never be allowed to forget and we will never forgive.
January 31st is not the end. It is the opening of a new front and while the option of a quick return will be gone, the impact and consequences of Brexit will next year become both obvious and urgent. One crisis has been avoided but other bigger ones are already on the horizon. Scottish independence being one. The Irish sea border is another. Next year will see real decisions made. Decisions that affect real people in real ways. For example, we know the civil service think providing the infrastructure and systems to cope with checks on goods moving between NI and GB and vice versa will be a big problem.
As the FT reported recently:
"The Financial Times revealed on Monday a leaked Department for Exiting the EU document which confirmed checks would be needed and that implementing them by the end of 2020 — on Mr Johnson’s timetable — would be a “major” challenge. “Delivery of the required infrastructure, associated systems, and staffing to implement the requirements of the protocol by December 2020 represents a major strategic, political and operational challenge,” the paper said."
As the FT reported recently:
"The Financial Times revealed on Monday a leaked Department for Exiting the EU document which confirmed checks would be needed and that implementing them by the end of 2020 — on Mr Johnson’s timetable — would be a “major” challenge. “Delivery of the required infrastructure, associated systems, and staffing to implement the requirements of the protocol by December 2020 represents a major strategic, political and operational challenge,” the paper said."
Similar challenges will apply at all the other new points of entry or despatch to the EU27. The 'major strategic, political and operational challenges' are reduced if the future relationship is close and increased if it's more distant as Johnson wants. Another reason why his self imposed deadline is self defeating.
If by June next year, the shape of a basic trade deal has not been agreed and no extension requested or granted, the steady trickle of companies moving operations into EU 27 countries will step up.
The last three and a half years has been a woeful tale of incompetence, indecision and shattered illusions. Contrary to Johnson's regular assertion that it was all parliament's fault, most of the dither and delay was caused by the Tory party trying to decide what Brexit actually means. They still have some way to go and I suspect the present fragile unity will not last beyond the first quarter of 2020.
The Anglo-American alliance that has been in the vanguard of securing human rights, peace and progress, defeating German fascism and Soviet communism is slowly coming to an ignominious end. It is surely no coincidence that both Trump and Johnson have questionable connections to Putin while pursuing policies damaging to the Western alliance.
Both men are amoral sociopaths. Both have put themselves in positions where compromising material (kompromat) could have been gathered. Neither man seems to have a grasp of history. They attack friendly European and NATO members but breathe hardly a word of criticism of Russia or Putin.
I do not blame Trump or Johnson. In any other sensible democracy such men would never have made it past the selection panel. That they did and then they persuaded a majority of the people to vote for them speaks volumes about the stupidity of the electorates on both sides of the Atlantic. This is where our efforts must be directed.
