Saturday 7 December 2019

Johnson's doesn't understand the Irish sea border he has created

Labour have got hold of a leaked Treasury document which contradicts Johnson's claim that there will be no checks on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Earlier this month when speaking to businessmen in the province the PM assured them, in answer to a point-blank question asking if they would have to complete customs declaration when shipping goods to GB, he  said they "will absolutely not." It now appears that they absolutely will.

Sam Coates at Sky tweeted:
It's quite clear there will be a lot of checks. But beyond this, according to a later and more complete story filed by Coates which quotes whole sections of the leaked document:

"The impact on the Northern Ireland economy could be devastating, this suggests. It claims 98% of Northern Ireland export businesses are 'likely to struggle to bear this cost' of customs declarations and documentary and physical checks on goods going within the United Kingdom.

"This will hurt citizens, it says. High street prices are likely to rise, as is unemployment in the retail sector. The additional burden for Northern Ireland business is the financial equivalent to increasing tariffs to 30%.

"The Treasury document is damning on the impact on the fabric of the Union. It says it means that Northern Ireland is separated 'in practice from whole swathes of the UK's internal market' and this means the 'economic union' is 'undermined'."

Coates says the 15 page document is the most significant leak of the campaign and I think he's right because it goes to the heart of both the prime minister's competence and trustworthiness. He either didn't realise what he was signing up to or he did but chose to tell another bare-faced lie about it. Look out for a furious reaction from the Unionist parties.

Incidentally, the 30% tariff equivalent is not right. It refers to increased tariffs on 30% of goods purchased, a slightly different thing.

Despite the clear, unequivocal evidence, Johnson continues to deny there will be checks as reported by The Belfast Telegraph.  Admitting he hadn't seen the document anyway he denounced it as "complete nonsense".  BBC Politics tweeted the PM's answer in a press conference:
It must be great to have that much self-confidence that you can dismiss what seems to be cast-iron evidence before you've even had the chance to look at it.

Central office will now be looking to see how they can spin the contradictory positions as being the same, or announce that highly paid civil servants at The Treasury have got it wrong while our shambolic can't-do-detail prime minister has understood it all better than everyone else.

Peter Foster, The Telegraph's Europe editor supplied a longish Twitter thread which begins below but goes on to look at what's comimg down the track for NI and GB businesses that trade across the Irish sea and also for Scotland and Wales. The document says both devolved administrations have "expressed displeasure at NI exceptionalism and its participation in the Single Market." This story has legs.

Foster:
It makes interesting reading for us, but perhaps not in Downing Street.
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