Our working assumption must be that we will technically be out of the EU by 31st January or very shortly afterwards with the Withdrawal Agreement ratified on both sides of the Channel. Talks will then get underway on the future trading relationship but as someone pointed out recently there is not yet a mechanism through which the government can consult different sectors of the economy about what they want out of the FTA, so the substantive stuff may not take place for weeks or months. That or Johnson doesn't intend to consult anyway.
The moment of departure will be hugely symbolic and no doubt we will be assailed by a lot of gloating and celebrations from the leave side. Brace yourself for it but do not despair. Think of it as a temporary parting rather than a permanent status. Lord Heseltine is talking in terms of 20 years but I would hope we can realistically think about ten or less.
I confess to not being able to watch TV or read a newspaper for fear of seeing Johnson's face or hearing his voice. It may take a while before I can bring myself to switch on a news programme. To think a man like Johnson is going to be prime minister for the next five years is enough to bring on acute depression but I suppose we must learn to bear it. The last few months has been like watching a con man at work but being unable to convince the marks they're being conned. I live for the day they realise he is the unfaithful lover, the jerry builder, the cyber scammer and the dodgy car salesman rolled into one.
Until then, some other matters. The two sides will need to agree very quickly if the objective is a quick 'bare-bones' deal or something deeper and more substantial.
Either way, two issues that will dominate the early stages are the Irish sea border and fishing.
The Twitter thread by Tony Connelly about the Irish sea border which I posted about yesterday has been turned into an article on RTE which you can read HERE. It gives an early indication of one of the problems Johnson has manufactured for himself. His insistence on getting a deal and leaving on 31st October was typical Johnsonian impatience which led him to accept any deal on offer. Now he will have to face the aftermath.
Officials in Stormont were consulted by Theresa May for her deal. They showed her what a sea border would mean for Irish businesses and this is why she persuaded the EU to extend the backstop to the whole of the UK. Johnson didn't consult anybody:
"'Everything was done at breakneck speed,' says one senior Stormont official.'That is the problem. Johnson is celebrating a successful negotiation, but one in which he compromised radically on principle'."
Connelly thinks Johnson had no choice and he's right. Despite all the bravado a no deal Brexit was impossible, the EU wouldn't compromise on the Irish land border and the self-imposed October 31st deadline was looming. Structures always collapse at the weakest point and the only 'give' was to conceded a border down the Irish sea even though this had been expressly ruled out by both Johnson and May. Northern Ireland went under the bus because avoiding a sea border was the only thing at that time the prime minister hadn't promised to die in a ditch for.
Watch out for more defeats presented as stunning successes in future.
However, he is not out of the woods yet. There is boiling anger in the Unionist community as the import of what has been agreed sinks in.
"'There seems to be a narrative in London, in Brussels and in Dublin that Northern Ireland is sorted,' says Aodhán Connolly, Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium. 'Let's be clear about this. Northern Ireland is not sorted. Seventy percent of what comes across the Irish Sea from GB is stuff that goes on shelves. We're talking about levels of complexity, checks and paperwork that have never been there before. And all those levels mean costs'."
And:
"So effectively, what we turned down in October 2018 as having real difficulties in terms of its workability," says Kelly, "Boris [Johnson], in an effort to get Brexit done by 31 October, rolled over and accepted it".
"The business community was directly engaged in Theresa May’s deal," says Kelly. "That’s why we ended up with something that really worked.
"There was none of that engagement with this deal. None at all."
Connelly talks about tempers having not yet cooled and I don't expect them to anytime soon. The adding of cost and complexity to intra UK trade will have the effect of reducing it and increasing trade with the Republic to make up. The full list of goods to be checked will be decided by a committee:
"Under the deal, a specialised sub-committee, which forms part of the overall Joint Committee created to manage the new relationship between Britain and Europe, will have to agree how light the burden should be.
"The committee will agree a list of goods and categories of goods which are only destined for, or will be consumed in, Northern Ireland - in other words, where there is no obvious risk they will cross the border and enter the single market."
Anyone harbouring a hope the checks will be simple and 'light touch' might want to note this:
"However, there is every possibility that, when the specialised joint committee gets into the weeds of which goods going from GB to Northern Ireland will qualify for tariff exemptions and rebates, member states will take a hard line.
"This is because of the risk that over time the market will adapt to the situation.
"In other words, once exporters realise that a certain category of goods has acquired the status of being risk-free, i.e. that it is unlikely to enter the single market over the land border, then they may try to exploit that situation in order to get that category of goods into the EU without paying tariffs or being subject to EU restrictions."
The closer the future trading relationship, the more aligned with EU rules we are, the fewer the checks and the lower the costs. But as we know Johnson does not want close ties or alignment. That for him is the whole point of Brexir. In which case the checks will become a real burden.
If NI-GB trade is reduced and all Ireland trade increased this will be seen by Unionists as raising the prospect of a border poll sooner rather than later and increasing the chances of nationalists winning that poll.
It does not bode well for peace in the province.
