Saturday 14 December 2019

What next for the People's Vote?

Johnson's majority rules out a second referendum and means the future fate of the nation is now in his hands alone. I find this terrifying personally because I think he's basically a fool. This article in The Atlantic magazine tries to portray his electoral triumph as part of some cunning lifelong plan to get into Downing Street. You can draw your own conclusions but I think he's just a liar who will say and do anything to achieve success. The article is titled:  It's Boris Johnson's Britain now.  If that's the case I suggest we all think about emigrating. There is only so much relentless optimism you can take when you see your community crumbling around you.

This morning there is a lot of introspection and soul searching on social media. Overnight on Thursday we became a grass roots movement without an aim and that is always a difficult thing to manage.

I thought a Tweet from professor Michael Dougan of Liverpool University summed things up well. He thinks our future role is threefold: First: To hold Johnson to account for all the lies and broken promises. Second: To push back against any plans to undermine basic standards and values. Third and perhaps most importantly: To grow a positive, patient and well-led pro EU movement. The position of the Labour party and wider movement will be key to this last aim.

It has always been my belief that leaving the EU was the only sure way to convince leave voters that there is nothing to gain and a LOT to lose through Brexit. You will find this in the 'about' section of this blog from way back in early 2017 almost three years ago.

We remainers have nothing to fear. Brexit is NOT going to be a runaway success under ANY circumstances. The leave/remain divisions in British society are here to stay for decades and we will always be able to ask leavers (or those who will admit to it): How has your life been transformed by Brexit? Invariably and as far ahead as we can see, the answer will be that it has made no difference except to make the nation poorer, weaker with fewer jobs and less influence on the world stage. Real examples of this will abound.  The evidence that Brexit has been a huge mistake will soon be both obvious and overwhelming.

Government has been paralysed by Brexit for three years. Come the 1st of February we will still be in limbo when we begin brutal trade negotiations as a non-member. It is more than likely we will have to agree an extension to the 'transition' period since we won't know what we're transitioning to until this time next year, when - assuming we can reach a bare-bones trade deal - a genuine transition period will have to be agreed to get all the systems and infrastructure in place. Make no mistake, we will for most purposes appear as a member state for years to come.

During this period Scotland and Northern Ireland will be growing problems for Westminster to manage. Johnson himself has created deep divisions between the parts of our own union which will not go away. It would not surprise me in the least to see both Sturgeon's much called for Indyref2 and a border poll in Ireland in the next five years. The earthquake that is Brexit has only seen a few small foreshocks so far as the solidarity of the UK is concerned.

No, life is going to get very difficult very quickly for Boris Johnson.

For the moment, we can begin to focus on the next and far more difficult phase to define our future relationship. Brexit will not be 'done' by January 31st but we will have past the point of no return. The article 50 process will be at an end and we will need to dream about reapplying for membership. But be assured, this dream will never die. 

Now I want you to look at this Tweet from Charles Michel, the new President of The Council (replacing Tusk):
He makes clear the importance the EU attach to the level playing field (LPF) commitments they will need from us. Without aligning ourselves to much EU regulation we aren't going to get a deal of any sort.

Peter Foster, The Telegrpah's Europe editor and always active on Twitter picks this up from Germany's largest on-line news website:
And another from Denmark's PM about fishing is ominous:
I note there has been a lot of speculation that Johnson is about to 'pivot' to a softer trade deal with close alignment because his large majority allows him to ride roughshod over the ERG. I don't think this is going to happen because the ranks of the ERG will have been swelled by the new intake. Sir Ivan Rogers doesn't think so either:

“This wrongly assumes that this is his preference, and that such a deal could be negotiated with the EU. We shall see, but I think neither will prove true.” In fact, this reading could even turn out to be “nonsense.”

Finally, a Tweet about checks across the NI border from Tony Connelly at RTE. He says NI retailers and business representatives are very angry because the Irish Sea border will mean paperwork, cost, delays, disruption of supply chains etc. It's a longish thread but well worth reading.
There is plenty ahead to keep this blog busy.
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