Friday 20 December 2019

We are not yet in the post-euphoria phase but the betrayals have already started

I am afraid we must bite our tongues while Johnson enjoys his moments of glory, the Queen's speech yesterday being one of them. For the time being, and I'm talking of a few months, it will seem as if he can walk on water. His leave voting audience is still in a state of euphoria and some will never escape it. Many remainers will give him the benefit of the doubt - for the moment. Don't lose faith. It is a temporary phase. There will be a reckoning. The con man has succeeded in mesmerising himself but the trance will soon be broken by the choppy waters of reality and he will find himself sinking rapidly.

Those who think Brexit will soon be 'done' are to be disappointed.

As a salesman I recognise Johnson has done an extraordinary selling job. Essentially he was able to convince a considerable number of voters in this election as he did in the referendum.  Yesterday he was still  in selling mode, claiming that Brexit will usher in a new Golden age. His problem is that he doesn't know when to stop selling. Indeed he can't stop. The web of lies must constantly be repaired, reimagined and reinforced whenever a break threatens to reveal the truth.

This is the mark of the true liar. Once embarked on a a path of lies you have to keep going. The longer you are on the path the greater the lies become until the gap between perception and reality is so large that only idiots remain convinced.  Johnson's comeuppance will arrive soon enough.  I think it was Alastair Campbell who, around 1999 when people were becoming impatient, gave us the "post-euphoria pre-delivery phase" to describe the period when all the promises remained unfulfilled. Unfortunately for Johnson we haven't even left the euphoria stage yet.  And remember Blair had a rising economy and a budget surplus to help him deliver. Johnson has the reverse but with an even longer list of promises. He is bound to fail.

It turns out Johnson's deal wasn't quite 'oven ready'. The Withdrawal Agreement Bill has been revised to  take account of his new found majority. He has removed references to workers rights and parliamentary scrutiny of his trade deal negotiating objectives from the one he had prepared earlier.

This morning much of the focus is on the apparent loss of protections for workers rights but it may well be the lack of parliamentary scrutiny over the trade talks that will be the bigger issue. He is falling into the same trap as Theresa May. A belief that far-reaching decisions about the economic well-being of millions of people are better made by a small clique in the Cabinet Office who don't know what they're doing when it comes to commerce.

For sheer chutzpah this takes some beating from the prime minister yesterday in The House:

"The steady erosion of faith in politics has poisoned our public life, so we will establish a constitution, democracy and rights commission to recommend proposals to restore trust in our institutions and our democracy."

What is Johnsonism? It's saying whatever comes to mind to solve today's problem. It is a mendocracy or government by liars.  To hear the liar-in-chief talk of restoring trust in our institutions and our democracy is a new low.

A recent article in The ByLine Times says One-Nation conservatism as under Disraeli is now dead although Johnson claims he is the embodiment of it. The Tory party has been taken over by the right and as the author, Paddy Briggs, says:

"He who pays the piper calls the tune and Johnson owes his position not to ‘One Nation Conservatives’ (who he drove out of the Party) but to the hard Right — the ERG and their fellow travellers and the CPS, Bruges Group and others. And they will expect him to deliver. He will not deliver what the Right wants out of loyalty or conviction. His world is a loyalty-free zone — as wives, friends and colleagues can testify. And his principles are as flexible as Groucho Marx’s — if you don’t like his present ones he’s got plenty more. No. Johnson is where he is because the Tory Right Wing put him there, and he’s not going to blow it by opposing them."

It will all go terribly wrong. British business is largely composed of men like Johnson. Forceful personalities full of bluster and stupidly intent, either by conviction or ignorance, on forcing a bad decision through to the bitter end. Pragmatism died some time in 2014 when Cameron conceded a referendum and Gove declared war on experts. We are in post-evidence based policy era now and into faith alone.

Eventually truth will dawn. Brexit will then hang around Johnson's neck like Iraq still does around Blair's. At which point everybody will say they always knew Brexit was a terrible idea.

I am thinking of starting to log the betrayals since I think it will be a longish list. The Guardian report that the new WAB:

"Removes an entire schedule that promised to protect workers’ rights, with the government suggesting this will now be dealt with in separate legislation."

"Ministers will no longer be bound by the legislation to provide updates on the future trading relationship or to make sure parliament approves the government’s negotiating objectives."

Science - Business website reports:

"The UK government’s proposal to establish a new technology funding agency broadly modelled on the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was a surprise omission from prime minister Boris Johnson's legislative agenda set out on Thursday"

The Independent suggest the European Arrest Warrant is also threatened:

"The UK is set to be thrown out of the European Arrest Warrant system after Brexit, the Queen's Speech admits, triggering a warning it will become 'a haven for Europe’s worst criminals'."

Perhaps most telling of all is the watering down of a commitment to raise the minimum wage to £10.50 per hour over the next five years:

"However the fine print on the policy, contained in the Queen's Speech on Thursday, shows the ambitious promise will only take place 'provided economic conditions allow'."

Just about everything in the manifesto will only take place 'provided economic conditions apply'. If there was a serious downturn a lot of things would get cut so saying this explicitly about the minimum wage should set alarm bells ringing among the low paid. They will be the first under the bus.  I suspect The Treasury knows more than its letting on and the economy is heading for slowdown next year.

The Queen's speech in full is HERE.