The Daily Express cheered recently when Austria rejected the trade deal that the EU had negotiated with Mercosur, the South American bloc, in what that called a 'huge blow' to Brussels. Had the EU forced Austria to accept it they would have been even more aggrieved but it is the UK who should be concerned since it demonstrates just how difficult it will be for Brexit Johnson to get a trade deal ratified by all of the EU27. Austria is unhappy about Brazil's environmental record as well as having concerns about labour and consumer standards not being enforceable, according to the report.
A few days ago Peter Foster at The Telegraph looked at what he called five known unknowns in the upcoming talks which Brexit Johnson will urge should begin quickly when Ursula Von der Leyen visits the UK this week. Foster tweeted:
His five points were:Right. As we slough off the excesses of the holiday season, here are my five 'known unknowns' about the coming #Brexit negotiation....— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) January 2, 2020
First up: Will Boris listen to business? 1/threadhttps://t.co/xYQs0OQuTA
1. Will BJ listen to business?
2. Can Brexit be banished to the business pages
3. How will the Irish front stop work?
4. Will the UK really dare to diverge?
5. What will the transition period look like after December 2020?
I would add to these points a few more: How will the Scottish government play it? What if we get an economic downturn? and how will the civil service react to Cumming's re-organsation while all this other stuff is going on?
However, you can read the whole Twitter thread yourself if you wish, I want to focus on points 1 and 4 about consultation and regulatory alignment because I think they are the most important ones at the moment and because the FT carried a report relevant to them yesterday. You can read it HERE (no £).
The FT article is by George Parker, the political editor, who is I assume well plugged in to current government thinking. He reports:
"The prime minister and his ministers are bullish about the prospects of a trade deal, but some inside Whitehall share the concerns of Ivan Rogers, Britain’s former EU envoy, that negotiators in Brussels will try to run down the clock.
"Sir Ivan said last year that the strategy was seen in Brussels as 'a huge open goal', which would be exploited to the full.
" 'It runs the clock down towards the next cliff edge, and confronts a desperate UK prime minister with a binary choice between a highly asymmetrical thin deal on the EU’s terms and ‘no deal’ towards the end of the year,' he added."
The article then gets to the main issue:
"Mr Johnson is targeting a deal that removes tariffs and quotas, but that would still leave other customs-related 'rules of origin' paperwork and a new regulatory barrier because Mr Johnson wants the UK to diverge from EU rules and standards. It would not cover services.
"Ministers are already facing fierce lobbying from industry about the potentially serious disruption this would cause, particularly to industries like automotive, aerospace and pharmaceuticals which have complex supply chains across Europe.
But ministers privately tell colleagues that the concerns are overblown. 'We are expecting the heaviest lobbying from industries that are in secular decline,' one senior minister said. Some in Whitehall say they expect Britain’s car industry to decline, regardless of Brexit.
"Mujtaba Rahman, of the Eurasia Group consultancy, said the right to diverge from EU rules was seen as an inviolable principle of Brexit. 'Key players in this government see the principle of divergence as Brexit's big prize,' he said.
Next, industry is already beginning to lobby ministers as I expected. The squeals will get louder as reports similar to the one in the FT come out. The car industry is apparently to be abandoned - probably fishing and agriculture too, as the government under Dominic Cummings, increasingly target industries of the future. We will have to retrain as bio scientists, AI specialists and software engineers. I wonder if Sunderland will cope?
Finally, and perhaps most shockingly, 'key players', by which I assume George Parker means Brexit Johnson and Gove, see the 'principle' of divergence as the 'big prize'. In other words there is no practical purpose. We intend to diverge from the standards we have helped to create for 46 years and which govern our nearest and largest export market, not because of some great burden that can be lifted but on principle.
I see now why we have never been able to get an answer to the question: what EU regulations do we want to get rid of after Brexit? It's because there isn't an answer, at least not one you or I could ever hope to understand..
We just want to do it on principle.
It reminds me of the joke about the mother watching her son march with a group of soldiers and saying, "Look at our John, he's the only one marching in step".
Finally, and perhaps most shockingly, 'key players', by which I assume George Parker means Brexit Johnson and Gove, see the 'principle' of divergence as the 'big prize'. In other words there is no practical purpose. We intend to diverge from the standards we have helped to create for 46 years and which govern our nearest and largest export market, not because of some great burden that can be lifted but on principle.
I see now why we have never been able to get an answer to the question: what EU regulations do we want to get rid of after Brexit? It's because there isn't an answer, at least not one you or I could ever hope to understand..
We just want to do it on principle.
It reminds me of the joke about the mother watching her son march with a group of soldiers and saying, "Look at our John, he's the only one marching in step".
A few days ago Charles Moore in The Telegraph said Brexit was a great opportunity to get back to imperial measures - so we and the USA may soon be the only parts of the world working in feet and inches.
Now, something else. In February 2016 Nigel Adams told his Selby constituents that if they voted to leave the EU he expected Britain to "leapfrog Germany and Japan and rise up the league table to become the world's third largest economy". I note the page on his website proclaiming this has now been removed by the way.
So, it was with some concern that I read HERE Standard Chartered are saying that by the end of the 2030's we might not be the third largest economy in the world. What? Surely there must be a mistake? After a lot of research, something which our Nigel doesn't believe in, SC say they expect Britain to ‘drop out of top 10 world economies by 2030’
Oh dear! What can they be thinking? It looks like almost everybody will have leapfrogged over us after Brexit.
Now, something else. In February 2016 Nigel Adams told his Selby constituents that if they voted to leave the EU he expected Britain to "leapfrog Germany and Japan and rise up the league table to become the world's third largest economy". I note the page on his website proclaiming this has now been removed by the way.
So, it was with some concern that I read HERE Standard Chartered are saying that by the end of the 2030's we might not be the third largest economy in the world. What? Surely there must be a mistake? After a lot of research, something which our Nigel doesn't believe in, SC say they expect Britain to ‘drop out of top 10 world economies by 2030’
Oh dear! What can they be thinking? It looks like almost everybody will have leapfrogged over us after Brexit.
