Liam Halligan is described on his Wikipedia page as an economist, journalist and broadcaster. He does indeed have a Masters degree in Economics from Oxford. Unfortunately, he does not have any qualifications in common sense or the obvious. He writes for The Telegraph as their Economics Editor but I suspect he is employed for his Eurosceptic political views rather than his knowledge of economics.
His latest effort has the title: A united Britain will have the upper hand over a divided and declining European Union. You can read it HERE.
This is I think a slightly deluded view where one average, mid-size country can face down 27 others in a trade negotiation. Even if we were a global superpower I'm not convinced it's possible. And especially not after the Withdrawal Agreement negotiation where we threatened and threw our weight about at the beginning, only to concede on every substantial point. On the other side of the table, the EU agreed a mandate and went quietly about getting everything they wanted - which they did. Halligan thinks phase II will be different because the Commons is more united and this will somehow help.
First of all, we are far from united as a country. The Tory party may be but this doesn't stretch to the entire population or the four nations of the UK. I also think we will find the different sectors of the economy will also be split about what they want from a trade deal. I daresay, phase II will see greater divisions in the EU but they will still be more united than we are and talks will follow a similar pattern. Brussels will set the agenda and the scope and will use our self imposed deadline against us.
He claims in the article that "New figures show our non-EU exports grew five times faster over the last year than our exports to the EU". I didn't recognise this at all and it surprised me so I checked the ONS website where I can see the figures for October were released on December 10th. Since these are the official figures I assume they are what Halligan was referring to.
This is I think a slightly deluded view where one average, mid-size country can face down 27 others in a trade negotiation. Even if we were a global superpower I'm not convinced it's possible. And especially not after the Withdrawal Agreement negotiation where we threatened and threw our weight about at the beginning, only to concede on every substantial point. On the other side of the table, the EU agreed a mandate and went quietly about getting everything they wanted - which they did. Halligan thinks phase II will be different because the Commons is more united and this will somehow help.
First of all, we are far from united as a country. The Tory party may be but this doesn't stretch to the entire population or the four nations of the UK. I also think we will find the different sectors of the economy will also be split about what they want from a trade deal. I daresay, phase II will see greater divisions in the EU but they will still be more united than we are and talks will follow a similar pattern. Brussels will set the agenda and the scope and will use our self imposed deadline against us.
He claims in the article that "New figures show our non-EU exports grew five times faster over the last year than our exports to the EU". I didn't recognise this at all and it surprised me so I checked the ONS website where I can see the figures for October were released on December 10th. Since these are the official figures I assume they are what Halligan was referring to.
I confess I can't see how Halligan gets to the 5 x faster figure since the ONS don't seem to publish the split between EU and non-EU trade for services. They only do this for goods. And actually, in goods our non-EU exports are growing much quicker as we can see from Figure 6 below:
Goods exports to non-EU destinations increased by £9.5 billion over the year while EU exports fell so I think he is probably right. Looking at the numbers in more detail, in table 2 (page 19), the £9.5 billion includes a rather big increase in Q3 where exports jumped by an unexplained £6.5 billion over the previous quarter so I think it may just be a blip. In any case the trade gap didn't get narrower, it widened because of non-EU trade in goods.
Our total trade deficit increased by £23.7 billion (to £48.7 billion) as you can see from the graphic below with trade in goods deficit reaching a whopping £154.9 billion while our services trade surplus fell by £3.9 billion. We actually increased our services imports, something we are supposed to be good at, by £19.1 billion.
So what is most notable that while exports to the rest of the world have increased slightly, imports have increased even more. This is what I would expect to see. Opening up opportunities for trade may be good for the consumer with rising imports of cheaper goods but what about the exporters in the north east and the west midlands? They may not be quite so happy. If we are unable to compete on a level playing field, we are going to find it desperately difficult when the surface is tilted against us by countries with lower standards. Leave voters may be surprised when these non EU countries refuse to raise their standards. The only way to compete then will be to lower ours.
While exports to our biggest market in the EU are falling, imports from Europe continue to rise. It looks as if EU customers may have found other sources inside the larger single market, which is perhaps easier for them. UK customers may not find it quite as easy to find alternative domestic suppliers.
This is typical of Brexiteers in the press by the way. In any article there is always some throwaway remark about the economic 'benefits' of Brexit. Halligan also thinks we will have a 'roaring 2020s' and the EU is flirting with recession and the rise of the hard right. I don't think they have a mirror in the Halligan household.
I wouldn't take his predictions too seriously. Two years ago he told us Germany's coalition was 'built on sand,' and that Germany was on the 'verge of political chaos'. A year ago he claimed Britain's economy was set to 'become the largest in Europe because of Brexit' since when growth and productivity has slumped.
Robert Lee, described as an economic consultant and investor, writes occasionally for the pro Brexit blog, Briefings for Brexit. He has argued in the past for everything from the EEA to WTO so I assume for him the idea of any Brexit at all is better than none. He is clearly of the same opinion as Brexit Johnson that the EU is a form of foreign empire brutally forced upon us and we must get out at all costs, including mass starvation. Anyway, he also thinks our position is stronger now:
"The UK is now in a strong bargaining position, with a majority government prioritising the potential regulatory freedoms of Brexit. With a weak economy the EU needs to protect its huge trade surplus as the UK conducts parallel trade negotiations with non-EU countries. The parties start talks with full regulatory alignment and zero tariffs. The Political Declaration allows for the relatively limited goal of a Canada style FTA. This is eminently achievable."
Sir Iain Duncan-Smith writes in The Telegraph that we should now be optimistic about the next round of negotiations. Crawford Faulkner, our newly recruited trade commissioner, is his latest secret weapon. In 2016 it was that bloody difficult woman Theresa May and David 'row of the summer' Davies, he of the titanium spine, teaming up with Liam 'easiest trade deal in history' Fox. They all failed. Then along came Brexit Johnson who promised to die in a ditch if we didn't leave by Halloween before capitulating and failing to meet the date anyway.
Now the Brexiteers, instead of coming to terms with the reality of our position, put all their faith in Crawford Faulkner. The fact the EU is seven times our size and far stronger, with vastly more experience is not relevant apparently.
It is the triumph of hope over realism isn't it? The story of Brexit.
