Barnier replied to David Frost yesterday barely 24 hours after Frost's letter landed in his inbox. I have to say the reply is a masterclass in diplomacy and logic and shows how ridiculous this country must look in European circles. We have increasingly made ourselves look like a nation of dementia patients wandering around in a daze, not knowing what we've just done or where we want to go. Barnier's letter is HERE.
He chides Frost for writing the letter in the first place, telling him it is not "a substitute for serious engagement and detailed negotiations". On Monday, Frost was telling the PM that Barnier was "losing the argument" but Frost's letter the following day seemed to show the opposite was true - otherwise, why go public?
Barnier, in a shortish two-page letter makes many excellent points (I would say that wouldn't I) which I think are worth repeating:
First, he says the EU are following the political declaration as agreed last October with Boris Johnson and answers Frost's charge that the EU is not offering the UK things that it has offered other countries, by saying:
"The EU and the UK are equally sovereign and as such will set the conditions for access to their respective markets. Regardless of what your letter suggests, there is no automatic entitlement to any benefits that the EU may have offered or granted in other contexts and circumstances to other, often very different, partners."
The British government seems to think because the EU have agreed things with Korea or Canada or Japan, we in Britain are automatically entitled to the same. We are not.
"Every agreement that the EU has concluded is unique, with its own balance of rights and obligations, tailored to the partner and era in which it is concluded. There is no model, no uniform precedent to follow in EU trade policy."
As for the level playing field stuff, which Frost's letter implies came out of the blue instead of being firmly in last October's political declaration, Barnier reminds him this has been clear since 2017 and is in the EU's guidelines of 23 March 2018.
I particularly liked this paragraph which makes three important points, the first is about Gove's recent suggestion that the UK might back away from a zero tariff, zero quota deal and accept tariffs on some goods in order to be released from any LPF conditions:
"In this regard, whereas I believe detailed discussions on substance are for the negotiating table, I would like to respond once again to your proposal to reduce the ambition of our future economic partnership by letting go of our shared commitment for a “zero tariff, zero quota” agreement (which you describe as a “low-quality trade agreement”). As I mentioned to you last week, apart from the fact that we do not have necessary time for a negotiation on each tariff line, the EU has always made clear that any future trade agreement between us will have to include strong level playing field guarantees, irrespective of whether it covers 98% or 100% of tariff lines."
The key things to take from this, in my opinion are:
- The UK has now belatedly recognised that a zero tariff, zero quota deal is not enough and refer to something we agreed to six month ago as a "low-quality agreement".
- Our own timetable has made a zero tariff, zero quota deal with all the LPF commitments the only one possible before December 2020. We have hemmed ourselves in.
- The LPF commitments Johnson agreed to last year will be needed under all circumstances anyway.
We also learned, without having to plough through 292 pages of the UK's draft legal text, that we are asking for " continued access to EU or Schengen databases". Barnier says this access is "linked to the obligations that Member States have to comply with and would go beyond what some of them have today."
It is as if the Brexiteers are finally beginning to face up to the fact that Brexit has real world consequences, starting in the next few weeks. They are either going to have to accept that a more distant relationship will mean we are weaker, less safe and poorer, despite all the wild promises made in 2016 and since, or we avoid all of that and the immediate disruption in the first few months of 2021, by crossing many if not most of their own red lines.
If Johnson does make serious concessions as many, including me, expect him to, you can bet the ERG will turn on him. Brexit will turn out to have been a massively expensive mistake that leaves us tied closely to the EU, without influence and poorer anyway.
But on the other hand if he refuses to climb down the consequences will be even worse. This is the choice that his decision to back the leave side in February 2016 has finally led him to.
