Friday 22 May 2020

Brexit: nobody seems happy

Some time ago on this blog, in October 2018, I wrote a post suggesting that at the end of the national convulsion that we call Brexit, nobody will be happy.  As time has gone on that view has increasingly hardened and over the past few weeks you can see how sections of the community are beginning to fear that not only will things not get better, they are set to get considerably worse.

In that 2018 post I mentioned the fishing industry and an article in The New European at the time about fishermen (HERE). There was anger then in small fishing communities about the way quotas are set by the UK government, not the EU, and the recent White Paper had explicitly said that wasn't about to change. Bigger vessels would still get the bulk of the quotas while boats under 10m that make up most of the British fleet will get a small fraction.

The BBC had another report a few days ago following research in collaboration with the New Economics Foundation (NEF) that showed more than half the English quota was foreign owned, bought as a long-term investment when fishing rights were curtailed dramatically in the 1990s.

Dr Emma Cardwell, from the University of Glasgow, told the BBC that an enforced change in ownership would be "legally tricky" meaning the government is open to litigation if it tries to reallocate quotas. Companies that purchased UK quota in good faith would be very likely to sue. So, it’s unlikely there will be any dramatic change there either.

Paul Lines, from Fishing for Leave, a pro-Brexit group within the British fishing industry is quoted several times in the article. You would have thought before getting behind the leave vote in 2016 he would have done some research but apparently not:

"I'm alarmed at how bad the level of foreign ownership really is - it far exceeds my worst expectations," he told the BBC, adding, "I fear government action will change nothing, and we're still going to be dominated by a foreign presence."

There is talk about the government forcing foreign ships to land more of their catch in British ports and to employ more British workers but according to the BBC they "could be disappointed."  I would say this is a certainty.

Paul Lines again:

"The government really needs to sharpen up on what they want to achieve in these negotiations," he has said and in the real killer bit:

"If nothing's going to change, the whole Brexit scenario is a lie. If English fisherman don't benefit from this, it's been a pointless exercise for us."

I suppose this is progress in itself. The realisation that you have been taken for a big ride is often a slow process when your mind wants to shut out the sheer enormity of the mistake you have made. The acceptance that you have been gulled by con men into doing something which was always against your best interests is a difficult one.

So, the fishermen are not happy.

In the meantime, if you've been following things on Twitter you will have noted that Nigel Farage has taken taken it upon himself to personally patrol the Channel looking for a handful of illegal immigrants:
This is not altruism or a mission to rescue these poor, frightened unfortunates struggling to make a new life, but to encourage other racists and get the authorities to 'crack down on them'.

His campaign comes as the ONS release figures showing net migration from outside the European Union has hit the highest level for 45 years while the number of people arriving from EU countries for work has "steadily fallen".

Jay Lindop, director of the Centre for International Migration at the ONS, said: "Overall migration levels have remained broadly stable in recent years, but new patterns have emerged for EU and non-EU migrants since 2016."

So, immigration hasn't fallen and is unlikely to fall. It will change as more immigrants from Asia come here. It's a bit like holding a street party in Selby but banning your neighbours and inviting people from Auchtermuchty.  It's not wrong but why do it?

So, those who wanted lower migration can't be happy.

In Northern Ireland, businesses are finding out the cost of trusting a promise, or indeed multiple promises, from Boris Johnson about no prime minister ever accepting a border down the Irish sea or NI having unfettered access to the British market, or there being no checks on goods transported between GB and NI. A command paper published this week shows there will be checks and it will add to the burden of doing business in the province.

So, Northern Ireland isn't happy.

The National Farmers Union tried last week to get an amendment into the Agriculture Bill to prevent ministers signing a trade agreement, principally with the USA, that would allow the import of food products into the UK produced to a lower standard than domestic regulations. The government didn't support it and it was lost.  This despite it being an explicit manifesto commitment.

Either the American trade negotiators are being fooled or the farmers are.Needless to say the farmers are getting a bit nervous.

I also note that The Agriculture Bill seems to be largely about granting ministers powers to introduce subsidy and payment systems in the future - but beyond generalities it doesn't spell out the details of who will get how much for doing what, when.

I suspect eventually, the farmers won't be happy either.

So, as Brexit reaches another crunch point and as we enter the fifth year after the referendum still in a swirling fog of uncertainty I would say again that when it finally clears nobody will be happy.
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