This morning The Guardian has an article (HERE) about "chaos and a car crash" in Downing Street which paints a grim picture about Johnson, his health and his government, following what looks like a period punctuated by frequent gaffes, U-turns and policy mistakes. He is accused of running a tight, highly centralised operation with even the merging of DfID with the FCO not discussed in cabinet. It is apparently worse than the sofa government of Tony Blair since there is only a single seat chair - the one occupied by Dominic Cummings.
This would be worrying at the best of times but we are entering a critical phase of Brexit when the real world consequences are beginning to bite. All the speculation, negotiation, planning and paper shuffling are coming to an end - albeit not as quickly as Johnson would like - and the folly of it all will soon become clear.
The NI protocol is going to leave some stakeholders deeply unhappy. One or other of the Unionists, Nationalists, Ireland, the EU, businesses, the ERG will be seething about the result, and possibly all of them.
Next, the Food and Drink Federation are pleading for a change of EU Rules of Origin which will prevent a lot of British food using imported ingredients being exported to the EU. Peter Foster tweeted about it yesterday:
A quick Friday thought. This week the EU and UK food and drink industries made big plea to @MichelBarnierfor special treatment on so-called 'rules of origin' to keep supply chains running...but we know that won't fly. So what does that mean? 1/https://t.co/2WNYAVe1eR— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) June 19, 2020
As Foster (and others) say it's a nice try and well argued, even logical with support from some EU based food groups, but it won't fly. Why? The answer is what is in it for the EU? Nothing. It is just something to help the people who voted for Brexit to avoid the consequences of it.
Incidentally, the Rules of Origin business will also impact the car makers since the Society of Motor Traders and Manufacturers think British cars could contain as little as 25% local content and will not be able to avoid tariffs - even if we sign a FTA.
Couple this sort of thing with the fact there are new, hugely complex HMRC computer systems to commission and get up and running seamlessly by next January (or June if you're in Dover), new immigration and agriculture systems to implement, trade deals with the USA, Australia, Japan and of course the EU to negotiate and you can see the scope for huge problems over the next twelve months.
In this context a tweet by David Henig neatly sums up why trade deals normally take years:
Back to first principles. Trade deals take years because they commit policies across a whole range of complex areas where policy making takes time. Deciding all such policies in a few months in order to commit it in treaty with your main trading partner is not good government.— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) June 19, 2020
Henig - a trade expert - says among the policies we need to decide in the coming weeks for trade deals - state aid, public procurement, animal welfare, food safety, environmental protection, labour, agriculture imports, immigration / work visas, goods regulations, standards, conformity assessment, data protection and data flows, access to our financial and insurance markets, investor protection, recognition of qualifications obtained elsewhere and so on and so on.
And we aren't doing it with just the one new partner but with our top two simultaneously plus Japan and Australia. Barely any aspect of human life in this country will be unscathed - with a risk of food and medicine shortages if we can't agree a trade deal with Europe.
Now consider doing this whilst trying to manage a global pandemic AND a growing financial crisis as government borrowing hit £55 billion for May alone! This is more than Sunak forecast for the whole year on March 11. A second wave of coronavirus is all but guaranteed as we go into winter.
The other day someone posted a clip of Michael Gove standing below the speaker's chair - presumably dating from earlier this year - with him appearing to be swaying unsteadily as if he had been at the strong drink. This would not surprise me at all considering the pressure he is personally under. He looks as if he has aged ten years in the past three.
Think about this. Gove warned about Johnson in 2016 and is now working for him as his effective No 2. Apart from coronavirus all the other Brexit related issues are down to him, Johnson, and the man he brought into government at Education, Dominic Cummings. If there is one man at the centre of the growing chaos it is him.
The cabinet is stuffed with supine ministers who are either lightweight or incompetent and usually both, all controlled by the psychopathic Cummings, seemingly out-of-control yet totally unsackable.
If you think the last four years have been crazy - the next twelve months will be an eye opener.
