Friday 19 June 2020

The Irish border is still the same long running sore

Michael Gove appeared in virtual fashion together with Brandon Lewis before the NI Select Committee yesterday and they both struggled to explain the details behind what freight companies and businesses are supposed to be preparing for on 1 January next year. I didn't listen to it myself but caught a clip this morning on the Today programme about 6:45.  Hilary Benn made a guest appearance and asked Gove a very specific, straightforward but seemingly impossibly difficult question.

Earlier Gove had told the committee there would be no exit summary declarations on goods going from NI to GB - which puts him at odds with Michel Barnier and the EU who have insisted that there will be. We wait to see what happens but I can see another flashpoint developing on what has been a long-running sore in the Brexit fiasco.

But Benn turned to another point and I assume he must have been given the question to ask. This was it:

On goods going from GB to NI will an entry summary declaration be required?

You would think the Cabinet Office minister responsible for it all would know the answer to what seems a simple and even fundamental question. Silence.

Then the sound of papers being shuffled and water poured. Lewis apparently gave a long answer of sorts but probably to another question I assume because the BBC cut that bit out. Benn tries again and is told there will be some "safety and security checks".

But did they include entry summary declarations Benn wanted to know. Gove said he had "given my answer" which I took to be "I don't know" heavily camouflaged.  Eventually the BBC said Gove advised that detailed guidance would be available in the summer. This was on June 18.

Businesses in NI have been screaming for clarity on what they are supposed to be planning for but if Gove's stumbling performance was anything to go by they might be waiting a long time. Serious doubts have been raised about the software and systems needed to make these declarations being ready on time. They are immensely complicated and normally take years.

The CEO of a company called ASM in Ashford who provided applications and support for freight forwarders and logistics companies has already said the timescale is "not viable". He also said to do it by 2025 would be "one thing" - so you can see it's not a matter of months.

Gove is also suggesting now that to put in customs infrastructure and border controls would "anger unionists" according to a tweet from Thomas Cole, a Political Analyst at City University London:
In a sense, this is the conundrum that he and others like Boris Johnson were warned about before the referendum. Creating borders is a source of grievance for one side or the other and is why the GFA works so well. Ireland wanted to avoid a land border to placate the nationalists and now the UK wants to avoid a sea border to avoid trouble from the unionists.

But I think the EU are not going to accept that there can't be ANY checks or border controls and their starting point is that the full code needs to be applied and then the Joint Committee can thrash out which goods are "at risk" and which could have a derogation applied.

Gove's position appears to be that no checks are needed and the Joint Committee will see what goods the border controls should be applied to.

It isn't hard to see that several things approaching very fast now.

First, there will have to be an extension for the NI protocol to be implemented and the UK government will have to ask for it.

Second, all the old arguments which characterised the NI question since 1997 are set to be rehearsed and rehashed in microcosm through the Joint Committee.

Three, the two sides (UK and EU) are far apart on what the protocol means in practice. It was fudged last October to allow Johnson to say he had got an "over-ready" deal done.

Fourth, the whole argument about the level of checks and the extent to which the Union Customs Code will be applied will become a permanent feature of EU-UK relations for years to come - until we rejoin.

Fifth, this is but a small part of the Brexit jigsaw which has not had two pieces fit together yet with time rapidly running out. Very shortly the government is going to be overwhelmed with big, important issues still unresolved and difficult decisions yet to be faced.

Finally, on polling I note on the WhatUKthinks website (HERE) The Times has started polling again and the latest (145th on 12 June) shows that by 54% - 46% voters think leaving the EU is WRONG (after don't knows are removed). This backs up another recent poll by Kantar which shows exactly the same position:


Are people beginning to see what we remainers saw way back before the referendum even started?  I do hope so.
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