Friday 6 November 2020

Brexit: A shambles from beginning to end

Anybody watching the rambling press conference from Donald Trump last night around midnight UK time would have seen what will surely rank as the most bizarre statement ever issued by a US president. He looked shrunken, almost broken as if he knew he was finished and was in the middle of a breakdown. To think he is the leader of the free world is profoundly troubling, to say the least.

And perhaps more troubling is that almost half of the American people still think he SHOULD be the next POTUS.

Trump questioned why nearly all the postal votes were cast former  Biden, seemingly forgetting that he had told his supporters to vote in person while his opponent urged people to use mail in votes.

Trump seems intent on fanning the flames of violence and trashing faith in the American voting system. He kept referring to illegal votes without producing any evidence and in the face of multiple state officials saying there were no examples of illegal votes being counted. It was madness.

It seems Biden is more likely now to win the election but the Democrats are not going to take the senate and will retain control of the House of Representatives but with a reduced majority. The next couple of years until the rest of the Senate seats come  up for election, is going to be stalemate. The only consolation is that we won't have Trump tweeting his ignorance from morning till night.

Back in Brexit land, The National Audit Office has weighed in with a report suggesting neither the government or business is ready to leave the transition period at the end of the year.  Anyone can see that we are heading for a hugely disruptive Brexit in a few weeks based an nothing more than a wing and a prayer. Multiple IT systems have yet to be completed for testing and most users won't even have seen the systems before they go live - assuming they're ready in time and they work properly from day one, quite a tall order as the NAO acknowledge.  If anybody knows about government IT systems it's the NAO.

There will have to be a delay. I say this because Brexit, the end of the transition period and the lack of readiness is unlike the usual government problems which tend to go under the radar until they actually happen - and the government can then come up with an excuse that nobody saw it coming, etc.  No, Brexit has been known about for four years. Umpteen reports from select committees and official bodies as well as industry itself have shouted about the problems for months. In January when chaos ensues, the government can hardly say we didn't realise or nobody saw it coming.  They will be right in the firing line.

This is why there will be a delay - and why the EU know there will soon be a climbdown. 

I note on the EU Referendum blog, out friend Richard North is, among other things, talking this morning about all the problems about to hit us in Northern Ireland and one can hardly help but reflect that he was one of the driving forces behind Brexit. He writes as if he had nothing to do with it.

His great work Flexcit barely mentions the Irish border at all and the Good Friday Agreement not once. Yet the border and the GFA have been - and continue to be - the biggest obstacle to Brexit. The NI protocol is a disaster not just for NI but for the future of the UK. Yet, here is how Dr North dismisses the UK-Irish border issue in Flexcit (page 79).

"Even under the worst-case scenario, therefore, where there is no agreement to eliminate customs barriers in the event of Brexit, there is little likelihood of a return to border posts and the associated controls. Border management will undoubtedly rely on sophisticated electronic and administrative tools."

However, I notice this paragraph has now been removed from the latest version of Flexcit - presumably out of sheer embarrassment.  It is another example of the Brexiteers not having a clue what they were calling for. At least I, as a remainer, feel free to criticise the government - how Dr North can do it as he usually does, without admitting he was behind much of it, is beyond me.

The Road Haulage Association in the form of its CEO Rob McKenzie is scathing about the government:

A Shambles from beginning to end. How right he is.