Johnson and Ursula Von der Leyen are due to speak later today to "take stock" of the deadlocked trade talks. I seem to recall an earlier conversation between the two in October when they agreed to "intensify" the talks and here we are three weeks later with little or no progress on the key issues. Nobody expects a breakthrough and they are unlikely to be disappointed. Neither side wants to make concessions and neither side wants to be blamed for walking away from the talks. Johnson is under the greater pressure but I don't think he realises it yet.
The Guardian report an EU diplomat saying the prime minister had not shown “any grasp of the detail” so I don't know which side will be most worried. Frost will presumably be sweating that Johnson might agree to something he doesn't understand while Barnier worries that Johnson doesn't quite get what a hole he's in.
The EU chief negotiator, briefing EU ambassadors this week, told them the UK must "internalize" what is needed for a deal - according to this Bloomberg report.
On this topic, I watched an Institute for Government webinar last week in which one of the speakers, James Johnson, a former No 10 adviser and pollster said something very interesting. In 2019, during the run up to October 31st, focus group feedback showed there was an appetite (Mr Johnson said people were "up for it") for a no deal Brexit. There was a genuine sense of grievance that the EU were trying to keep us in.
But recent focus group polling showed people were now confused and "couldn't work out what the grievance was" with the EU. I think (although he didn't say this) the government's election winning slogan is now working against them. The public is bored with Brexit and in focus groups they apparently "recoil" from the word, presumably because they think it's already done. All the threatened disruption and dislocation didn't happen did it? It was all scaremongering wasn't it? Many businesses still think a deal will "save the day" and they won't need to do anything or that an extension will be negotiated.
This is the government's problem. Having lulled the population into believing it is all going to be pain free, easy and beneficial, they cannot get the engagement or cut through needed to encourage people and companies to prepare.
Overwhelmingly, people want a trade deal with the EU and Johnson, already slipping well down in the polls and with terrible rating for his handling of coronavirus, cannot afford to disappoint. Piling a no-deal Brexit, which people think was "done" in January, onto the massive cost of coronavirus is unthinkable. Leaving WITH a deal at the end of December is pretty remote simply because we are not prepared.
The IfG webinar was entirely focused on the lack of preparations and it came just a day before the NAO report warning of "widespread disruption" in January. Remember, this is an entirely voluntary crisis against a grievance nobody understands and in the middle of an economic crisis and the deepest recession for 300 year. Come on, no government is going to do it,
So, although there won't be a breakthrough this weekend, it will come sooner or later. I wonder if the time has come to tell Johnson the EU are going to end the talks until the UK gets real?
Meanwhile over in the USA, Biden has moved into what seems an unassailable lead against Trump and it now looks certain he will be confirmed as president elect this weekend, perhaps even later today. Inside the White House bunker we watch in fascination as a giant ego is hammered and crushed out of shape on the great anvil of reality. Trump is a loser. How will he bear the humiliation?
I note Downing Street is playing down the impact of a Biden win but his Irish ancestry and friendship with Obama, the "part Kenyan" president as Johnson once called him, is more bad news for the embattled prime minister. And hence very good news for us.
