Saturday 14 November 2020

Cummings suddenly gone for good

Cummings has gone for good. Downing Street is suggesting this morning that the relationship between the PM and his senior adviser "went off a cliff" yesterday. The surprising thing is that he lasted so long. He was not the genius he or Johnson thought he was, just a very convincing con man who convinced two gullible men, Gove included as well as Johnson, that he was some kind of miracle worker. Persuading a narrow majority about the illusory benefits of Brexit by a series of lies is not a miracle. It's what con merchants do. The surprise is that Johnson and Gove thought that kind of prestidigitation qualified Cummings to be given free rein over huge policy decisions. Gas lighting half the electorate is not a sustainable or useful political philosophy.

The FT seem to have all the details as can be seen in this tweet:

Although he and Lee Cain were kicked unceremoniously out of Downing Street last night it is not expected that Cummings will remain silent:

The Telegraph have a story: Dominic Cummings exits Number 10 with parting shot at Boris Johnson, about Cummings disputing the events and saying he and Johnson had a "laugh" but the article also claims

"After Mr Cummings resigned on Thursday evening, allies had complained of "dithering" by Mr Johnson, saying they had to go round him to Mr Gove to get decisions made.

"They are also known to have spread rumours that Mr Johnson had lost his powers of concentration after being hospitalised with coronavirus earlier in the year, and that Ms Symonds 'bombards' him with texts setting out her opinions on policy up to 25 times per hour.

"Sources said Mr Johnson was particularly riled by newspaper reports of Ms Symonds being referred to by nicknames including 'Princess nut nuts' by Cummings loyalists."

Expect more of the same in the coming days and weeks. The burning question is will it make any difference to Brexit. Mujtaba Rahman thinks it might and appears to detect a change in mood as he tweeted that 

Downing Street played down any suggestion of a change of tack but I suppose it is possible there were disagreements about policy. It's a coincidence that the row blows up just as the trade talks reach a critical phase. Johnson and Gove are under huge pressure. There are no easy options in the next few days.

I heard this morning on Radio 4 small businesses that are not prepared for Brexit at all - because, one claimed, they didn't know what to prepare for. Actually, they do but they simply haven't looked and can't be bothered. The massive increase in paperwork, bureaucracy and costs will come as a shock to many and I'm not even sure the government realises how much damage this will do to British exports to the EU next year.

The government has few options:

  • Capitulate on the LPF and governance and get a small concession on fish
  • Agree an extension to carry on the talks
  • Walk away and trade on WTO terms
The latter would be the nuclear option with devastating consequences for industry, jobs and areas of the country that voted Tory last year. The North East would be particularly badly hit and Sunderland won't thank Johnson if Nissan pull out - as they would have to if their business becomes unviable overnight. It will struggle even with a deal but WTO terms would be the death knell.  The Treasury and Sunak know the trouble this would add to tax revenue and the economy.

No, the options are one or other of the first two. Would the EU contemplate an extension?  It would legally be very difficult and one would have to ask why they would do it. Brussels would have the upper hand and are likely to press home their advantage, which is to get a deal in their favour before or as part of agreeing any extension.

The failure to ask for an extension was pure hubris. They honestly thought the EU would bend because we buy more from them than they buy from us. It wasn't so much shooting ourselves in the foot as taking an AK47 to both feet.

On the extension, in a little noticed piece for RTE, Tony Connelly the astute and well connected Europe editor claims the EU and UK are already discussing a "period of grace" for supermarkets in NI which sounds logical to me in so much as we aren't ready to do any customs checks from 1 January. He says:

"It is understood, however, that the UK has asked for a grace period to allow supermarkets time to adapt and that the EU is considering this, on the condition that there is full compliance with the Protocol over time. A further corollary is that the more exceptions the UK looks for, the greater the supervision the EU will insist on."

Note it is the UK asking and the EU "considering" on condition that there is "full compliance" over time.  This will be a bit of a humiliation if confirmed but a clear recognition of who is in the driving seat. It is also bad news for NI retailers and first minister Arlene Foster who was hoping for permanent derogations and a relaxed attitude to customs checks. It looks like that is not going to happen.

And the price to be paid is greater supervision by the EU - presumably the office in Belfast that the UK has been refusing?

So, look out for an extension but referred to a "period of grace."
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