The trade talks are set to carry on in Brussels this week but as some EU diplomat has noted wryly, the only thing which is moving is the time. The two sides are still circling each other like pusillanimous heavyweights, afraid to swing a punch. I have always thought we would agree a deal and on balance, I still believe that. It will be a poor deal but the best one available in the circumstances, paving the way for continuous negotiations stretching into the years ahead by successive future governments as they seek to shift Britain closer or further away as the political climate changes.
Bear in mind that Johnson started the negotiations way back in February saying in the official mandate -"The Government would hope that, by that point [June], the broad outline of an agreement would be clear and be capable of being rapidly finalised by September."
The deadline has been shifted back and back with the last one being October 15. But despite all the threats on our side to walk-away we are still sitting at the table. One does not have to be a genius to see why that is. The cost of walking out is enormous. The man who makes that decision - and there is only one - would need to be insane to do it. That man is of course, Boris Johnson. On the EU side they have the European Council of 27 leaders who would have to collectively come to a decision. Only the PM can decide almost on a personal level.
Biden in the USA would apply huge pressure on Johnson and I really cannot see him standing up to that. We would end up with almost no friends anywhere in the world.
And does he want to carry the responsibility for closing the symbolic Nissan plant in Sunderland? The one that Margaret Thatcher - a reviled figure in the north - brought to Teeside in the early eighties. Think what his own legacy would be. I don't believe when it comes to it that he will leave without a deal. It's not that he worries about anybody else, he has no empathy for anyone or anything except his own narrow self-interest, but he does want to be liked.
So, reading Tim Shipman's account of the shenanigans last week in Downing Street, I begin to wonder.
Shipman claims that David (Lord) Frost went to see Johnson last Wednesday night, in the middle of the upheaval over Cummings and Cain. Frost is close to Cummings and has taken his orders from him rather than Johnson - he being notoriously light on the details. This is what Shipman, a man with good contacts in Downing Street, said:
"Lord Frost, the chief Brexit negotiator, met Johnson at 10pm that night to seek and win assurances from Johnson that he would not weaken his negotiating position. That did not stop people in Cummings’s orbit briefing that Brexit was in danger if he was allowed to go."
I don't believe any 'assurance' from Boris Johnson is a bankable thing - after all he was the one who told the Irish people back in 2016 that the border would remain "absolutely unchanged" - and look what happened to that.
However, it does tell us quite a few things doesn't it?
Firstly, that Frost realises we are at the end game and either the UK or the EU must bend, Secondly, that he was sufficiently worried that Johnson would bend first that he went to see him.
Thirdly, that he is not a disinterested party as Barnier is, following a mandate set by political leaders, he is pursuing his own and Cummings' personal agenda. Can anyone imagine Barnier demanding the same of the EU27?
Fourthly, Cummings, or at least people close to him, think the PM will capitulate, this was given last week as one of the reasons why Cummings would stay on until Christmas.
Why should the weakening of Boris' position worry Frost? He is there to carry our the negotiating instructions of the PM but his late night visit to Downing Street is confirmation that he has had little contact with Johnson - otherwise he would have known the prime minister's thoughts (insofar as Johnson ever has any) without a hastily arranged meeting. It is clear that Boris has no clear position or plan or strategy and has left it all to Cummings and Frost to "sort out."
The next few days and hours will be crucial. I cannot see the EU giving any ground at all on the LPF and governance and only a little on fish.
The UK fishing industry employs 12,000 people with about 6,000 UK registered fishing vessels, almost 80 per cent of which are vessels of 10 metres and under in length. This is Britain's biggest and best bargaining chip (and that it what it is). Frost is gambling British farming, the car industry and the financial sector in order to keep a few foreign vessels out of British waters.
I still think Johnson will cave in at the end, fishermen be warned. It is his only real option but it will create an awful lot of ill feeling in Brussels that it took so long and the EU27 may not be that interested in helping to save Johnson's face. The ERG will be very unhappy and probably incandescent. Frost may well quit in protest.
The next seven days will be the most explosive so far. But Johnson has only himself to blame.
