It looks like we are edging closer to the deal. You can tell the government spin machine is gearing up to sell it to a sceptical party. Yesterday Nick Watt at the BBC caused the pound to rise when he tweeted (below) that the UK was headed towards a deal with a reference to Eurosceptic MPs being told they will be "happy" with what has been agreed. We wait to see. Personally, I doubt it but you never know. Whatever is agreed the government will do a big selling job it, that is a certainty. Here is the tweet that set the markets off:
Big buzz in the last hour among Tory MPs that the UK is heading towards a Brexit deal with the EU. Eurosceptics being reassured they will be happy.
— Nicholas Watt (@nicholaswatt) December 15, 2020
Brexit watchers might be forgiven for thinking we had similar news about two weeks ago and it didn't quite work out that way. I am certain now that there will be a deal eventually and it will be a bad one sold as something fantastic. Johnson is a master at 'selling' something he doesn't understand as the Holy Grail. So, nothing we will see over the next two weeks should come as a surprise to anybody.
To temper the febrile optimism in Westminster, Bruno Waterfield of The Times tweeted that everything was quiet in Brussels:
Nothing imminent tonight according to sources on both sidesPretty certain nothing will happen imminently, said oneNot tonight, said anotherWestminster is a bit excitable is the vibe here, a deal is very much still not there although the next few days have potential https://t.co/oYVIHH5vF1— Bruno Waterfield (@BrunoBrussels) December 15, 2020
Watt said that Brexiteers were "being reassured that the UK has seen off unilateral punishment by the EU if the UK diverges from EU standards in future" and that what had been suggested as lightning tariffs would not be applied. They were told Britain has negotiated a joint dispute mechanism which "could lead to punishment if one side loses."
The FT also report optimism that a deal will be reached and they suggest that "Johnson’s allies are already branding the proposed new mechanism a 'freedom clause' — a title aimed at reassuring Tory Eurosceptic MPs that Britain would retain the right to set its own regulatory course, albeit with an orderly system of 'rebalancing' tariffs if divergence was too great."
(Original UK text suggested non-regression. Original EU text non-regression plus new baseline if both sides increased levels of proection. To be fair looks like the EU position hardened during talks, UK stuck to position, and for a deal will have to accept new tougher EU line)
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) December 15, 2020
Brexiteers told Nick Watt that they would need a "decent amount of time to examine the treaty bill" and if they are to approve legislation to enact any UK / EU deal next week they need to see it by Thursday - and no later than Friday.
That looks tight unless there is rapid movement on fish (watch out fishermen) and on cross-retaliatory measures.
Finally, perhaps David Henig puts it into context with this:
Reminder: The EU wanted a joint commitment to upholding roughly equal standards and the possibility of protecting themselves with tariffs if this didn't happen. If today's rumours are correct the UK has successfully negotiated what the EU wanted.
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) December 15, 2020
