Either Johnson will soon be toast or we will

EU-UK trade talks continue with people looking on in amazement that we are within 30 days of ending the transition and with a treaty now said to be running into 800+ pages that nobody except a tight group at the very top of European governments and EU negotiators has yet seen,   We are well into extra time and yet there is an air of calm as if failure to reach agreement means things will just carry on as they have always done. It is astonishing that huge disruption is coming - deal or no deal - unless an extension is agreed, which is politically very difficult for Johnson, who may not even survive the next three months, and yet there is no panic.

When the Tory party elected him I think they believed he was their saviour and would not only "get Brexit done" he would somehow, in a mysterious way make a success of it or at least "sell" the idea that life in Britain would get better, even though it might mean a bit of hardship for a while.

But it's clear that he has no idea what he's doing and is constantly in thrall to one faction or another. This was always going to be the problem with an untrustworthy liar who has no political convictions and is the world's greatest ditherer. 

The negotiations have been agreeing the various issues that can be agreed and stacking them up in the tray marked finished. We are now by all accounts 95% there. What has been settled is presumably to our advantage, tariff and quota free trade with our nearest and largest trading partner. The EU are now holding up the price tag for all that we have got so far. The LPF, governance and probably fish.

Johnson and Frost are eyeing up the goody bag and wondering if they can afford to pay.

Last weekend The Sunday Times had an article by Tim Shipman that EU Commission President Mrs von der Leyen was sending someone to this week's talks to 'lean' on Barnier and force him to offer some compromises.  I was sceptical about it and this morning the FT has a report suggesting the opposite: Barnier faces pressure from national capitals over Brexit compromises.

"Michel Barnier will brief EU national governments on Brexit talks on Wednesday morning amid concerns in some capitals that the European Commission is poised to give away too much ground in the endgame of negotiations. One EU diplomat said France and some other member states were becoming “nervous” and would be pressing Mr Barnier “to include them before agreeing to anything”.

"French president Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday warned “France will not accept an agreement that does not respect our long-term interests.”

The sticking points are still LPF and governance and Barnier has apparently said the two sides remain far apart on these crucial issue.  Things must come to a head soon.

The FT report also has this interesting comment:

"Business leaders have been told to be ready for a conference call with Michael Gove, Cabinet Office minister, on Thursday, sparking speculation that the talks could reach a climax this week." 

What does this mean?  Is it a call to prepare for no deal?  Or to reassure them a further delay is coming or that an agreement is in sight or what?

Another FT report this morning reveals how the EU are playing hardball and withholding all sorts of things on pet travel, insurance green cards as well as more serious stuff such as data and financial rules adequacy decisions, in order to apply maximum pressure on the UK government. Not only did the EU hold all the cards at the beginning they gathered more and more as time went on.

As if all that wasn't enough The Telegraph this morning has this headline:

The UK economy is shrinking at its fastest pace in three centuries https://t.co/qEDYxNomAs

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) December 2, 2020

It has always been obvious the UK will have to make the most concessions. The EU do not need us more than we need them. Johnson has led the nation and the Tory party up a cul-de-sac from which there is only one humiliating exit.

Everything is coming down to LPF and governance, issues on which the EU is absolutely united and will never compromise.  The problem for the PM is that if he concedes on these things the ERG and the party will eat him for breakfast.

It's a straightforward decision, either he's toast or we are. 

And in a way, it doesn't matter what he does, he's finished, the only question being is if he takes the whole nation with him. Gove and Sunak realise the stakes even if he doesn't. If we don't compromise now we will have to compromise more in January or February because we will be in an even weaker position. The threat of no deal will have gone and our slipshod and chaotic preparations will have been exposed for the whole world to see.  It will not be pretty.

Incidentally, I noticed on Twitter someone pointing out that the collapse of Phillip Green's Arcadia empire has caused more jobs to be lost than all the people employed in the UK fishing industry. Yet the government seems entirely unconcerned.  What I think it shows is that the Tory party doesn't care about any fishing community and it is simply bring used as a bargaining chip.

They will soon be sold out as they were in 1973.