The two chief negotiators are to take stock of progress later today and to decided if it's worth carrying on.
The LPF/governance issue appears to be the sticking point and I noticed a paragraph in an FT article in which someone familiar with the video call claimed Barnier had told MEPs yesterday that the deal would contain a framework that was “unprecedented” in any other EU trade agreement.
If the EU side is happy - assuming Barnier convinces those in the EU27 who are adamant that the UK cannot enjoy privileged access while it's free to diverge from EU rules - this will enrage the ERG. No doubt Johnson will sell it as a fantastic deal but the eurosceptics in his party (i.e. most of it nowadays) are even more sceptical about promises from the prime minister. They will want time to scrutinises the 800+ pages and his future will depend on what they think.
It's hard to image the LPF circle being squared in anything other that a way which favours the EU and gives them the whip hand. It will be a dangerous moment for Johnson, already suffering from a lack of support for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic response.
The next problem for the PM will be how to present the deal as fantastic when massive disruption hits our EU trade in January? Plenty of people in the freight business expect EU hauliers will simply refuse UK journeys if there are to be long delays and those who do come will insist on payment (demurrage) to delays so costs will rise. There will be shortages and costs will rise further.
I look forward to seeing the PM in the House of Commons defending all that.
I was always pretty sure we would get an extension and I still think we will but I noticed a piece on a website for the freight industry called The Loadstar suggesting European shippers are not keen on an extension. They are said to be "fatigued by false starts” and prefer the new regime to start as planned. The article says:
"However, several European operators and the European Shippers Council (ESC) said any extension to the transition period was a 'no go', with one adding that there was no time left to get the necessary vote passed.
"ne forwarder said: 'I think there’s a different feeling in each member state; most seem confident in their preparations and I’ve a feeling they are becoming tired of the false starts. The Dutch hired 1,000 customs officers and others have followed suit, staffing-up. However, I think this only covers ‘control of goods’, the facilitation – simplifications we’ve seen the HMRC implement – isn’t being considered or reciprocated, which could cause further delays.'
"Morgan Cargo UK MD Herman Bosman told The Loadstar extending the transition would make no difference, noting that there had been 'enough time already' spent on preparations."
Enough time might have been spent in the EU but its quite a different story this side of The Channel.
We are now paying the price of not preparing in good time and are set to be hit with the worst of both worlds. The deal we get will be tilted in the EU's favour because threats to walk away were always seem as empty ones and there will be massive disruption as well.
The reaction of the ERG will be crucial as will support from the right-wing press who will take their cue from IDS, Steve Baker, John Redwood, et al.
Let's hope Johnson enjoys a bit of favourable press coverage with the good news about the coronavirus vaccine. I expect it will be all downhill from now on.
