Sunday 20 December 2020

The bell is tolling for Johnson

There is a meme circulating on Twitter with a picture of Johnson on which is written a message that he always over promises, under delivers and blames others. I think this is true. His desperate need to be liked means whichever  audience he is addressing always gets to hear what they want to hear.  He is a showman who has never lived in a world where your word is important, where truth is valued as a matter of personal honour.  It is the constant problem that has pursued him from childhood but is about to be ruthlessly exposed.

Here is the Tweet:

Today is the day. After four and a half years, nine months of talks and 95 per cent plus of an agreement reached, the only two outstanding points are state aid and fish. The European Parliament has set midnight tonight as the absolute deadline for the final text to be provided. The member states are right behind Barnier and last night the BBC reported Downing Street saying there will be no deal unless there is a "substantial shift" by the EU on fish.  A big clash is thus set up.

Johnson must now decide if, alongside two other horseman of the apocalypse, the coronavirus and the deepest recession for 300 years, are going to be joined by a no deal Brexit.  It may be a take it or leave it moment. There are just 11 days to go.

But in The Telegraph, Mark Francois of the ERG has an article warning Johnson he "would regret trying to bounce Parliament into a deal."  In the piece he says:

"Frost knows full well that even if he agrees a new Treaty that the European Research Group will live up to its name and go through it with a fine-tooth comb. If there is some unacceptable “poison pill” which truly undermines our sovereignty, buried deep within Article X of the voluminous text, then we will find it, to the displeasure not just of all our members but also no doubt all those new “Red Wall” Conservative backbenchers, who were elected on an unequivocal pledge to their constituents to “Get Brexit Done”. Similarly, any misguided attempt to bounce Parliament into voting for such a complex Treaty, before people have even had time to examine it properly, would go down like a lead balloon on the backbenches."

The ERG have lawyers on stand-by and if there is any hint of a single link to the EU which they object to (and  I suspect there will be many) they will demand more time to go through what Francois refers to as the 'voluminous text' - a move which will probably be supported by the European parliament.

The fish issue is totemic for both sides with the fishing states like France, Spain, Denmark and Holland adamantly opposed to any change in quotas but under pressure have already moved quite a bit from their opening position. The ten year moratorium has come down to six and the quota has gone up from 18% to 25%.  But Johnson is still not satisfied. He wants more.

Fishing is worth just 0.02% of the UK economy in total.  The difference between the two sides is a fraction of that.

So this is the momentous choice facing PM Johnson today. Neither side seems willing to pull the plug. He can avoid making a decision again and let things rumble on a few more days or hours. The European parliament may then refuse to consider or ratify the treaty when it finally comes before them which would create a massive crisis.

He can walk away, keep the ERG happy but at the cost of entire sections of the UK economy representing many times the 0.01% that the fishing sector is worth in the deal, gifting Nicola Sturgeon and Sinn Fein a massive boost for independence or a united Ireland.  The chaos coming down the track on 1 January will be multiplied several times over.

Accepting the deal and having the ERG scrutinise the text and find the faintest hint of a sell-out or indeed anything they believe incompatible with pure unadulterated sovereignty, means he will be 'toast' as one Tory MP put it recently.

By constantly promising one side of his party that he is being 'tough' and not making any of the painful compromises needed while assuring the country that they will 'prosper mightily' without a deal he as set himself up to fail in spectacular fashion.

It is not as if he is secure in the party after yesterday's U-turn on lifting restrictions at Christmas. This came just three days after he ridiculed Kier Starmer at PMQs for even suggesting a five day break in tier 3 restrictions at over the festive season was not a good idea. As usual he defended it to the hilt and didn't give himself any wriggle room at all.  London and the South East are now in tier 4 and the five day break is down to just Christmas day.

Hence he finds himself looking absolutely stupid and his MPs, the ones who cheered in the chamber and supported the policy afterwards, are looking just as stupid. He is nowhere near as popular as he once was with his own MPs - regardless of what they say in public.

Kier Starmer is giving a press conference at 11 o'clock this morning which should be worth listening to.

Finally, one worries about Britain's future when The Mirror publishes a poll suggesting if the referendum was re-run, the result would still be the same albeit with a smaller margin 50.4% to 49.6% according to a serious poll by Savanta ComRes who interviewed 2,006 UK adults aged 18+ online between December 16 and 18.

Depressing thought it is, I honestly believe that for a big chunk of the population, a lot of whom voted to leave, the real problems have not yet manifested themselves. The shortages, the rising costs, the jobs that will be lost are all still scaremongering. When they realise (a) there is no upside to Brexit and (b) a lot of downsides I think they are entitled to be very angry.  And they will be.

Finally, a tweet from Tim Walker who worked with Johnson at The Telegraph and now writes for The New European:





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