Trade deals with the EU take years precisely because there is plenty of time to consult and agree the details to ensure maximum buy-in. I think the UK side know this deal will come in for a lot of stick and they want to force it through at speed so nobody has time to scrutinise it properly. See this tweet:
.@10DowningStreet pessimism on UK/EU talks is tactical - to extract more out of EU on fish; & to delay a deal to the very last minute to limit Parliament's time to scrutinise the detailGovt especially worried about Brexit-supporting lawyers waiting to analyse it for Tories’ ERG— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) December 18, 2020
Notice the last bit about Brexit-supporting lawyers.
Apparently, the government are planning to push legislation through the commons in one day and get the Lords agreement and The Queen's assent the next day. Apart from the fact this is no way to make law, I honestly cannot see this happening in the three days before Christmas eve.
I anticipate an unholy row in the Tory party. The ERG know that they voted through the WA without looking at the details and I don't believe Johnson will get an easy ride. He is treating both the EU parliament and ours with contempt.
The PM is going to have a hard job arguing that the deal MUST be approved quickly to avoid leaving without one when he has consistently said it wouldn't be a problem if we did. His position is this: unless you agree to rush through 1800 pages of dense legal text, essentially signing a contract without reading it or understanding its ramifications, we will have to face prospering mightily in January. Not easy, eh?
The deal will, through the non-regression clause, prevent regulations being dumped wholesale and the rebalancing measures means future UK governments will always have to balance the cost of any possible EU sanctions against the perceived benefits of diverging from EU norms. The ERG will be looking with deep suspicion at this clause.
Fishermen will be particularly aggrieved. The will gain little after five years of thinking Brexit would be a transformative event for their industry.
Gove's statement that if the deal isn't agreed or ratified the UK will not seek another and will simply walk-away is also ridiculous and most MPs know it. A minority of wild-eyed Brexiteers actively want that to happen.
Meanwhile, a new strain of coronavirus has emerged and is thought to be behind a surge in cases in London and the south east. This is as the government is resisting any change to their recently announced plans to ease the lockdown measures over the Christmas holiday which many experts think will result in a rise in cases in January.
As if that wasn't enough for next week, Hilary Benn's Future relationship committee have published a scathing attack on the government's preparations for the end of the transition period. The Guardian report claims:
"Benn said the government “still cannot provide business, traders and citizens with certainty about what will happen in all the areas affected by the negotiations”.
"The report adds that decisions have been made “too late”, communication with businesses has been “patchy at best” and police may be forced to use “slower and more cumbersome” systems.
"The cross-party committee, which backed the report unanimously, warned that the combination of Brexit uncertainty and Covid-19 could hamper UK businesses."
Tory MPs will have to argue the government line that it was only by being tough that the UK got such a 'fantastic' deal when a few days later chaos ensues in Dover, Holyhead and other ports and companies who thought they were prepared for Brexit will find they were not.
With a lot of pre-Christmas stockpiling I think the problems will not emerge until the second week in January when fresh produce starts to run out.
In the next few days, as the details are revealed and MPs get into it, I think we should expect a lot of fireworks. Johnson and Gove will be under enormous pressure.
