Thursday 31 December 2020

The quiet before the storm

Well today is the last day of the transition period and after four and a half long years of division and rancour, we set off to who knows where. Johnson claimed the deal, which MPs approved yesterday by 521 votes to 73, confounded critics who said it was impossible to have “free trade with the EU unless you conformed with the EU’s laws” - according to the FT.  Of course, it does no such thing as we will find out - as soon as we begin to diverge in any meaningful way, the EU will slap tariffs on some goods.

And, in any event, tariff free only applies to British goods with the right amount of UK content and the rules of origin are so fiddly and complex, many companies will pay the tariffs to avoid doing all the work needed to certify the origin of their goods. It will be interesting to see how much tariff is paid in 2021.

It seems to me that there is a quiet before the storm feel to New Years Eve. I may be wrong but I think a lot of people, mainly leave voters but also many on the remain side, will be shocked over the next month.  This includes the PM who apparently refuses to acknowledge he has crippled our exporters with new barriers to trade:

The Times reports that "businesses and hauliers are unprepared for a 'game-changing' reset in the UK’s trading relationship with the European Union on Friday, with industry leaders warning that the majority are not ready to negotiate a 'mountain' of red tape that awaits.

"Employers’ groups said that the limited time importers and exporters have been left to digest the Brexit trade deal agreed last week could result in significant disruption at ports and its terms could result in higher prices for consumers."

This, remember, is not being gently phased in over the next year but applied brutally at one second after midnight CET (11:00 pm UK time) tonight - just a few days after the new treaty was published. 

Hilary Benn took Michael Gove to task in the debate for claiming adding billions to the cost of doing business with our largest trading partner would somehow be a benefit:

This theme incidentally has been taken up by Johnson, who is suggesting British business will gain by only having one set of form to fill in from now on - as George Parker at the FT noted:

It's hard to believe these two men are at the pinnacle of political life in this country and even more that the entire nation isn't falling about with laughter.  They are actually taken seriously.

Is it likely to be chaotic tomorrow?  Probably not. it's a national holiday followed by a week-end at the start of the year when traffic volumes across the Channel are relatively light anyway. But problems are coming, make no mistake.

According to a survey by the Federation of Small Businesses, only about one in eight small exporters due to be affected by the end of the Brexit transition period tomorrow has completed preparations,  while the Road Haulage Association (RHA) warned that as many as seven in ten traders are not ready for new customs procedures.  This is from The Times report.

I also think that many who think they're prepared are not.

We on the remain side have tried to warn people, we marched and leafletted. We campaigned and petitioned and organised or attended public meetings. We made financial contributions and spent money on travel. We have given up a lot of time to fight Brexit. And now we have to admit we failed - but only in stopping the folly before it could wreak havoc on the life of this country.

From tomorrow we will have actual examples to point to and it will be harder and harder for Brexiters to deny the disaster is a disaster.  Our job - to set Britain back on the path to rejoining the EU - can only get easier.

For Johnson and Gove this is the high point.  The fan is starting to revolve and the ordure is about to hit.

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