I don't believe it will ever be possible to reach the levels of traffic that we saw whilst we were in the single market and the customs union. How much of a reduction we will see is a bit of an unknown. It will be interesting to note how close we get to the 10,000 trucks per day that we used to see.
That reduction will inevitably mean a loss of exports and a loss of imports. I don't think that is a controversial point, trade will be lower than it otherwise would be and that will impact jobs, and the choice and availability of goods in shops and supermarkets.
Why there will be a decrease in trade can be seen in the massive increase in paperwork as from today.
Last night, hours before the end of the transition period, the government published updated details of the Border Operating Model (159 pages) plus a series of model case studies in a sort of anti-foreign investment brochure (70 pages). Anyone still thinking of setting up an operation in the UK to service the EU market would do well to read it before making a decision.
If you were considering setting up in Europe where would you locate the plant after Brexit? On an offshore island where the vast bulk (six sevenths) of your output will need to go through the bureaucratic nightmare or on the continent where only about one seventh attracts all the rigmarole and form filling? Tough, eh?
One of the examples is the exporting of fish to France, a process which involves 26 steps. A graphic shows how to do it:
This is what Britain's fishermen, those who voted for Brexit, were voting for in 2016 whether they realised it or not. Many businesses will struggle to survive.
I wonder if such a document (and the whole thing covers mechanical goods, textiles, fish and auto-parts) was available in 2016 would the vote have gone the same way? I think perhaps not. Vote Leave would probably have dismissed it as scaremongering, but from today this will be the reality.
These are all the non-tariff barriers that Johnson denied existed a few days ago but they are just phase 1 in the process of crippling British businesses. The next phase is the creation of different standards so manufacturers, those who the government is urging to export, will now need to comply with two different European standards, ours and the EU27's.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement does not even include a mutual recognition of standards so companies who make things which need to be certified, will have to pay twice to do it. This is simply so that Britain, alone in Europe, can be out of step.
A lady named Poala Dyboski-Bryant, of Dr Zigs Extraordinary Bubbles of Bangor Wales was on Radio 4 this morning from France where she was setting up an office. Her company makes toys to produce bubbles and the soapy liquid to go with them. She has also registered for VAT in Germany and Italy. She didn't seem to realise even why she was setting up an office and said it was a fallback plan because of the uncertainty and she had taken about six months to get a business registered in France.
She didn't appear to realise this was a legal requirement under EU law whether or not we left with a deal. Her company is tiny with net assets last year of less than £9000. I assume she can ill afford all the time and effort to make all these arrangements for what is essentially a micro business. How may others will simply not bother? I wonder.
If you are still puzzled, as I am, to know quite what will suddenly change, what great revolution the Brexiters have in store for us you might like to see John Redwood's blog for Boxing Day where he sets out his priorities under our new-found freedoms. The top one, the very first, the most vital thing that I assume has been troubling him all these years as he agitated to get us out of the EU is.... wait for it...
Repealing the Ports Directive.
Yes, that's it. The Ports Directive. I know in Selby it's been a bone of contention for years. At The Wheatsheaf it's talked about non-stop. They can't wait to see the back of it. The trillion pound cost of Brexit is worth every penny if only we could get rid of that blasted Ports Directive.
Seriously, has anyone even heard about it? Is Mrs Dyboski-Bryant in France worrying about it? Does she even know that is what all the time, money and effort she has wasted this year is all about - at least as far as Redwood is concerned. He really needs locking up.
At least from today we will be pointing out what IS happening as opposed to forecasting what could or might be happening. None of it will be good news.
