Monday 14 December 2020

The talks drag on

I think we did learn a few things this weekend after the brief joint statements that talks are set to continue - with 17 days to go!  Firstly, that despite all the tough talking and the rhetoric on the UK side, Johnson is not going to walk away. And since the EU have said as much openly, I am back to thinking confidently we will get a deal.  We also learned something we might have forgotten, that Johnson doesn't understand how the EU actually works. For the second time his request to meet Merkel and Macron was rebuffed. Trade is a matter reserved for the Commission, they can't meet him.

Brexiteers mad belief that France and Germany run the EU seems to persist even now in Downing Street.  But we learned that they don't.

We also learned that Britain will get no advantage in the single market and the level playing field issue will not be resolved without Britain signing up to (a) a non-regression clause (b) some sort of complicated system to check we are not gaining an advantage in the future and (c) a mechanism that will allow the EU to take quick action if we ever try to undercut their businesses.

This is crucial for the EU and however heavily disguised the article is, you can be sure there will be no treaty without that security for the EU.  You can also be sure the ERG will be furious.  John Redwood is clearly worried:

But I am afraid this is exactly what we will get - simply because nothing else is on offer or conceivable for the EU.  I wonder what he thinks the negotiators have been talking about?  Of course it will be a complex legal agreement.

The EU have always made it quite obvious that an ex member cannot be better off outside the market with an FTA than it was inside as a full member.  David Frost's speech in Brussels last February is going to look a bit silly next year. He talked about the "we are going to have a huge advantage over the EU – the ability to set regulations for new sectors, the new ideas, and new conditions – quicker than the EU can."

"We aren’t frightened by suggestions there is going to be friction, there is going to be greater barriers. We know that and have factored this in and we look further forward – to the gains of the future."

We will get a deal. There will be no "gains" and as for Britain setting regulations for new sectors - well, this is pure hubris. As if the EU27, surely the greatest regulatory superpower there has ever been, are going to adopt our regulations. We may be first but it will be with a betamax solution. 

Alexander Clarkson a lecturer in German and European Studies at King's College London tweeted:

Next comes the issue of ratification with the European parliament beginning to make noises about not being sidelined. Johnson seems to think he can ram an 800 page treaty through parliament - or at least the implementing legislation for it - in a few days, even 24 hours, but I am not sure he can.

Even his own side will be wary after the Withdrawal Agreement.  So, look out for an extension or implementation or grace period - we will not be free of the EU on 1 January you can be sure of that.

I thought the Spanish Foreign Minister's description of what trade deals are about was particularly interesting and worth listening to. She is typical of the continental European's I have worked with. Clear about the fundamentals and incredibly rational. These are the sort of men and women we will find ourselves competing against in the years ahead. Be afraid.

Finally some of the headlines this weekend are reminiscent of pre-war Nuremberg. Even the former CEO of Siemens UK commented on Twitter about how badly this is going down in Germany:

Shocking isn't it?  We are descending into an abyss.

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