The government keeps emphasising the problem is worldwide but seems to think there are thousands of drivers and food processors sitting around doing nothing in Europe who will be happy to leave their families and come over here for three months. I think this is highly unlikely.
Now, they have issued visas for 800 butchers. This is to address the shortage in the pig processing industry which is causing chaos on farms and the slaughter and incineration of thousands of pigs. I fear the industry will be disappointed. Even that number falls well short of what is needed.
I am far from confident that enough butchers are either currently unemployed in the EU, or so badly paid they are prepared to drop everything and rush over here to help, for six months, leaving behind family and friends to plug a gap in our labour market. We have created a terrible atmosphere which is far from welcoming. I assume rates of pay will need to be extraordinarily attractive.
Next, the transport secretary announces a reversal of the cabotage rules so that EU truckers can carry out more internal trips in the UK. There has been no reciprocal move by the EU and the Road Haulage Association complain that their members are now going to be at a disadvantage if European companies can come here and undercut them.
I would be surprised if EU hauliers will realise for months that the rules have changed. There is even a question about whether or not this is legal under the terms of the TCA. Can the UK unilaterally disregard the terms of the deal it signed last December?
This is the same issue that the social care industry is facing, with a growing crisis in staffing at many care homes, driving up wages while staffing levels fall dangerously low. At some point between now and Christmas we will no doubt see the government announce more short-term visas for EU care workers.
New trade deals that Liz Truss signed up to when she was trade secretary will have a similar impact.
Exporters won’t be able to recruit skilled workers while facing increased competition from overseas suppliers. It is tying the hands of British industry at the same time as asking them to step up to the plate and boost exports. Mad isn’t it?
It’s
fine calling for industry to train more British workers but that can only work
if British workers are prepared to do the work at rates comparable to our
international competitors and with similar productivity. There is no sign that
they are. By the time there are enough workers in logistics, food, butchery,
social care - even assuming we ever get to that position - many companies will
have gone to the wall.
Grant Shapps criticises hauliers for wanting to return to “mass immigration” but without access to workers how are they supposed to survive? And unless they do, we will be left having to use foreign (EU) companies to do the work for us. New companies can hardly start to replace failed ones, up if they can’t employ people in sufficient numbers.
And all the time there are shortages, rates of pay and costs will rise and buyers will try to source cheaper goods from abroad.
And
yesterday we learned why immigration has generally been a good thing, certainly
with far more benefits than otherwise, the birth rate in England and Wales has
fallen to the lowest since records began in 1940.
Without immigration the economy will simply atrophy.
The FT report that the IMF are forecasting the UK recovery will lag behind all of the G7 and will suffer the worst 'scarring' from the pandemic with an economy 3 per cent smaller by 2024 than it otherwise would have been. This is about £60 billion a year and although the article doesn't mention it, I assume it is separate to the impact of Brexit.
So much for levelling up.
