Those who used to say Johnson never had any intention of sticking to the Withdrawal Agreement, and that doesn't include me, appear to be being proved right. I always thought it was plain incompetence but now it looks as if that was the plan all along. I can't believe I'm saying this but the Britain I once knew is seriously planning to renege on an international treaty that it entered into in bad faith. In a way it's even more shocking to me than Brexit.
What's the evidence? Take a look at this clip from ITV News. Asked if he negotiated in good faith, Frost cannot say a simple yes and he looks decidedly uncomfortable:
Asked if he negotiated the Brexit agreement in good faith, Lord Frost responds: 'We negotiated to find a result'Lord David Frost comments after Ireland said countries around the world should not deal with the UK because it 'doesn't keep to its word' https://t.co/2Sh7Dtau1U pic.twitter.com/fdLvJaAwO7— ITV News Politics (@ITVNewsPolitics) October 13, 2021
Ian Paisley Junior told the BBC's Newsnight programme that Johnson told him "personally that after agreeing to the protocol he would sign up to changing that protocol and indeed tearing it up, that this was just for the semantics".
A tweet from Dominic Cummings last week:
We took over a party on ~10%, worst constitutional crisis in century, much of deep state angling for BINO or 2REF. So we wriggled thro with best option we cd & intended to get the 🛒 to ditch bits we didn't like after whacking Corbyn. We prioritised. Now time for IM2 #Frosty
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) October 12, 2021
And Steve Baker, writing in The Critic magazine that Cummings told Tory MPs they should "vote for the original Withdrawal Agreement without reading it, on the basis Michael Gove articulated: we could change it later."
So, let's take it as read the NIP is going to be ditched at some point.
The EU have published proposals to try and address some of the issues around the checks supposed to be taking place between GB and NI on agri-foods and other goods entering the single market. Reading the speech by Frost in Lisbon on Tuesday, one would imagine they are going to be rejected as not going far enough. Frost wants the role of the ECJ to be scrapped or at least significantly reduced. It is the red line the EU cannot cross.
EU sources have told the BBC that the ECJ role only came up as an issue in July this year, eighteen months after it was agreed and six months after Brexit. All the complaints were about excessive checks but when that looked like being solved, a new excuse is needed - hence the ECJ.
Rafael Behr in The Guardian has a good article looking ahead at what might happen if Johnson does refuse to implement what he signed up to. I think now this is what will happen, the evidence is stacking up.
Johnson will dare the EU to operate a border somewhere on the island of Ireland, something the EU have said they won’t do. Brussels is said to have drawn up contingency plans at the insistence of France and Germany who appear resigned that Britain will renege on its commitments.
Under those circumstances, if the EU is not going to look like a paper tiger it will need to retaliate seriously, to take action of some kind. You can bet they will be effective measures, diplomatic, economic and cultural.
I noted that Frost said the EU is ‘blocking’ us becoming an associate of the Horizon research funding programme. There is an agreement but it isn’t yet adopted and I can’t see that happening anytime soon.
The EU might apply targeted sanctions on our exports or ramp up checks to delay goods, none of which will be welcome news. I assume, we will then do the same, and the total amount of trade, already well down on pre-Brexit levels, will fall further.
We shouldn’t forget other elements, too. Leo Varadkar, the former Irish Taoiseach, is already warning other countries that Britain’s word can’t be trusted. You can be sure Biden will put pressure on the UK to stick to its commitments.
But also, the House of Lords, the opposition, the devolved governments and the Irish nationalist community and business in NI will surely push back. Johnson will find himself isolated, with only the right wing press and the most vociferous Brexit supporters with him.
What all of this tells me is that Johnson has no interest whatsoever in Northern Ireland, in levelling up, in the blue wall seats, in HS2, in getting cases of covid down or in anything other than his own survival for the next few days. If he was, the government would avoid these diplomatic rows and actually get on with improving lives, but they aren't.
Meanwhile, Johnson is in Spain, at Zac Goldsmith's villa (£25,000 a week) on another freebie. It tells you all you need to know.
