As the prime minister staggers on like a prize fighter on his last legs, I noted at the weekend another gang of Brexity nut jobs had come together to form something called the Global Britain Commission, chaired by none other than Dr Liam Fox. Note the swish website. It was formed last year with a fan fare I must have missed (there are so many of these little groups aren’t there?) with Fox writing a piece in The Telegraph about how it is a "one-year project and its focus will be on working with government to define, shape and make a reality of Global Britain." There. One year and all will be well in Brexit Britain.
Dr Fox is of course a man who knows his a**e from his elbow but only because he learned it in medical school. He is joined by a motley crew including the CEOs of Forth Ports and Heathrow as if our dim exporters don't know that exports need to be...well, exported somehow. We also have the heads of Coutts bank and Virgin Atlantic and a partner of the accounting firm Ernst & Young. You can see the full list of 'commissioners' HERE.
Anyway, they have a report coming out today and at the weekend put out a trailer in The Mail on Sunday with a splash that claimed Brexit would deliver "a £500billion Brexit windfall and create millions more well-paid jobs." The trailer is to whet the appetite of other Brexiteers and the report is designed to forestall the day when the population realise Brexit was all a con trick.
When you read the MoS piece you discover these 'commissioners' had simply calculated that if Britain exported per head what Germany manages we would get a £474 billion boost. They say we are doing a great job but our exports are worth just £8,597 per head, while German exports amount to £15,645. Quite a difference, eh? We need to increase exports by a mere 80 per cent. In fact Brexit has resulted in a 15 per cent fall in exports.
Nobody seems to have told them or picked up the flaw in their argument. Germany is of course an EU member and has been from the start in 1957. All those blasted regulations that have held us back appears to have equipped them with rocket boosters. Strange that.
Anyway, the report - the first of three apparently - is out later today and I look forward to reading it.
But I bet it doesn’t get near to a realistic plan or even to understanding how Germany does it. Let me enlighten them.
German companies do not go round declaring themselves world leaders with no justification. Even if they are world leaders they don’t boast openly about it.
Neither do they employ bull s******s - in fact you never find Germans like that anyway. What they do do is quietly strive to be the best in whatever field they work in. They design and test and spend money on research and development and have built up a network of world class businesses that supply their exporters. German companies have exploited the single market too.
You first need world class products, a lot of them. The German economy is full of businesses which are world leaders in their own field - the so-called Mittelstand. Often family owned they have a loyal workforce and in turn regard them as family. You don't get casual redundancies for short-term book-balancing purposes.
For a bit of fun, have a look at this Youtube video of a German company bending 160mm (6") thick steel plate using a German machine made by a company you never heard of usually with one man effortlessly doing it all:
I bet no company in Britain could do this. This is the Germany I know. Anyone who has bought or owned a German machine will understand.
We are not going to rival the Germans by becoming Singapore on Thames with reduced employment rights and low paid insecure jobs. To emulate Germany you need to emulate German methods but that is anathema to Brexiteers who are even now looking to water down our rights..
You also spend years developing products and investing in automated production methods to raise output and lower costs. You compete fiercely with your German rivals (German companies famously sue each other a lot for patent infringements). All of which hones your business until it is virtually unbeatable.
You spend money on training and apprenticeships - real ones not the kind of short term stuff Britain does to give the impression the government is doing something.
Britain could increase exports but it isn't going to do it by erecting barriers with our largest overseas market. We are not going to become rich by exporting more cheddar cheese or jam in jars sealed with elastic bands and greaseproof paper.
We need to get real, stop wasting money writing glossy long reports that create an overnight headline and then go in the bin which is where I expect Fox's effort to be on Friday morning.
