How fitting it is that the PM is visiting Belfast later today to meet the political parties in an effort to get them into the Stormont power sharing executive. He is bound to enjoy a 'warm reception' as he's confronted by the consequences of the lies he told in their original 2019 setting. He has also penned an 'exclusive' 2200 word essay (£) for The Belfast Telegraph - "Let’s change the protocol, not scrap it, says Johnson" - setting out his policy on Northern Ireland. He is belatedly getting involved to try and sort out the mess he has created over the NI protocol. It looks like a failed attempt even before he starts.
The one thing certain to be absent from the meeting is trust and without it there can be no meaningful progress. There is no trust in Johnson from any party. The DUP don’t trust Ireland or the EU and see enemies everywhere.
The prime minister could have spent two years selling his deal to sceptics in the province but has instead repeatedly undermined it and is now, according to the FT (no £), about to sign off on legislation to repudiate parts of the protocol. He has compounded his own mistake and made things far worse than they might have been.
He is already sending mixed messages about his intention but in any case, the DUP have already said it’s too late for words - they want to see action.
Having been betrayed by him before and on more than one occasion, the staunchly unionists party are not going to accept any more ‘assurances’ from the PM. As others before them have discovered to their cost his words mean nothing and even his actions can't be relied on very much more. The DUP will be demanding he ditches the protocol altogether, fiddling at the margin is not going to cut it.
Sinn Fein will of course be on the opposite side. They won’t accept any talk of legislation to ditch the protocol..
Johnson’s trip follows what was by all accounts a difficult telephone conversation at the weekend with the Irish Taoiseach Michael Martin:
Considering @MichealMartinTD is one of the mildest mannered of taoisigh (PMs) this says a lot“Government Buildings gossip suggests that Micheál Martin’s telephone call with Johnson on Tuesday was “the single worst call he’s ever had with anyone”— Ben Tonra (@Bentonra) May 14, 2022
The FT’s Peter Foster backed this up with claims reaching him that the call was “very difficult” “stubborn” “eulogising on sovereignty” and “little grasp of detail”…not even close to “conciliatory”
None of this surprises me. It is Johnson all over.
The prime minister told the BBC that any changes to his NI protocol and post-Brexit trade rules "must also restore power-sharing at Stormont."
At this point, Sinn Fein could easily say if the NIP is changed we won't enter power sharing and the whole basis of his Withdrawal and Trade Agreements - and even Brexit itself, would be called into question.
Sinn Fein leader Michelle O'Neill has previously said that there is "no credible alternative to the protocol" and has called on the UK government to find a way to make it work.
The trilemma would be back on the table. He will face a choice. There can only ever be two out of these three things: a land border, a sea border or Brexit and if both a sea border (opposed by the DUP) and a land border (opposed by SF) are out of the question he is left with having to ditch Brexit or at least any meaningful version of it as far as the Tory hard right are concerned.
In what may turn out to be a prophetic quote, Johnson has said the protocol - "is turning into a political problem" that needs to be rectified. It is a massive understatement.
By upsetting the delicate balance and destroying the 'creative ambiguity" that could exist only inside the EU single market and the customs union he has brought instability that will only ever be solved by returning to the SM and the CU. Nothing else makes borders truly invisible. Not only does it solve the current tensions it makes sure none can arise in future as regulatory changes apply simultaneously to both sides of the notional border.
Any other solution is likely to survive only until the next contentious EU or UK regulation comes into force and another disagreement develops. That type of relationship will require constant and intense management.
It should not be forgotten that Sinn Fein are no longer a fringe party. O'Neill will become first minister if ever Stormont gets under way, and in the Republic they are equal with Fianna Fáil as the largest party, each with 36 seats. Taoiseach Micheál Martin is currently governing in a three-way coalition consisting of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party. The next election is in 2025.
Johnson is behaving like a Jerry builder condemning the house he built, the decisions made in a rush in 2019 were simply designed to keep him in power, now threaten stability in Northern Ireland as many warned at the time.
The chair of the NI Select Committee, Tory MP Simon Hoare told the BBC that “It’s a naive nonsense for the govt to ask anyone to believe that (1) they didn’t understand what they signed up to…(2) that ministers thought the EU would behave entirely differently to that stipulated in the agreement.”
On the Protocol, Tory Chair of NI Select @Simon4NDorset: “It’s a naive nonsense for the govt to ask anyone to believe that (1) they didn’t understand what they signed up to…(2) that ministers thought the EU would behave entirely differently to that stipulated in the agreement.”
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) May 15, 2022
Personally, I don’t agree with Hoare, I am pretty sure Johnson simply didn’t understand what he was signing up to. I think his advisers probably overestimate his cognitive abilities and assume when they explain something, he is actually taking it in. I don’t think he listens and if he does, he just can’t follow the logic but is too stupid and cocky to admit it. This is not an altogether uncommon problem in Britain.
The meeting later today will perhaps be Johnson's first confrontation with reality in Belfast.
And never forget, it was Johnson who proposed a return to the sea border idea in the first place.
Anyway, watch out for fireworks later.
