Saturday, 14 May 2022

Lord Frost: the babblings of a simple man

Lord Frost has been sticking his nose into the Northern Ireland protocol issue again, as if he hasn’t caused enough trouble. He went to Washington this week to deliver a speech to The Heritage Foundation, the text of which he has helpfully had republished on the extremely pro-Brexit website, BriefingsforBritain. Read it HERE. His visit to the US capital coincided with that of Conor Burns, the PM’s Special Representative on the NI Protocol, who was doing his best to placate Biden’s administration after all the threats from Liz Truss about ditching parts of the protocol.

Burns cannot have been too impressed with Frost’s intervention and one wonders why he had to go to the United States to deliver it.

Britain's former chief negotiator said little that we haven't heard him say before but he said it in a different way which didn't make it any more coherent.

Frost began by praising the nation state - telling his audience that “Successful countries are successful nation states.” Quite what that tautology means I’m not sure since failed countries are also failed nation states, but be that as it may.

His talk was entitled: “Last Exit to Freedom”. The ‘last’ apparently because he thought the UK in the EU had been close to the end as a nation state. What France or Germany or the other 25 members states think about that would be interesting, and “freedom” because Britain is now ‘free’ to do things without “constraints on national democracy and freedom of choice.”  We shall see how that works out very soon in Ireland and if there really are no constraints on national democracy.

He says EU member states "cannot change a lot of things through their elections – trade policy, fiscal policy, energy policy, environment policy, increasingly foreign policy, for Euro members." What he means is that they can’t change things independently. What they can do is change the policies he lists collectively and with so much more impact. That’s what the EU gives its members but he doesn't mention it.

On Brexit, Frost says It’s “wrong to suggest that such big political decisions are not suitable for people who are not professional politicians.  Everyone is able to have a view on how and by whom they are governed.” The problem is not that the referendum decision wasn’t suitable but that gullible voters who didn’t fully understand the issues were conned by politicians who also didn’t understand the issues but campaigned as if they did. The examples are too numerous to list here but I'm sure you will have your own examples.

In an absolutely jaw dropping comment he told his audience that “the right way to handle the big issues facing the country is to be honest about them, to debate them, to argue them out, to explain the trade-offs, and to try to take people with you.”

Whaaaaatttt!  I despair.

Later, he compounded this when talking about “a plan for the full revival of the British nation state” which I assume in his mind, he means no social or employment rights, few health and safety rules, minimal environmental and consumer protection and so on. He says;

“First, honesty. We must level with people about the problems, the magnitude of the difficulties, and what the solutions involve.  We mustn’t pretend they are pain free.  As I said at the start, I believe honesty, free debate, engagement with the issues, will produce the right results..”

The way I remember the referendum campaign, whenever anyone mentioned difficulties of any magnitude they were shouted down and accused of scaremongering. No difficulties were foreseen at all and far from being painful we would 'prosper like never before.' And he talks of honesty.

Nowhere was this more true than in NI, which figures prominently in the speech. This is him again:

"Second, we have of course not entirely escaped the EU’s orbit and that is having an effect.  This is most obviously true in Northern Ireland, where the EU, knowing we had no “walk away'' option because of the actions of our own Parliament, has insisted that Northern Ireland must be treated as if it were quite simply part of the EU customs union and single market for goods – regardless of the protections and balances in the famous Northern Ireland Protocol.

"The effect has been to inhibit energetic deregulatory action by the UK Government for fear of widening the regulatory gap with Northern Ireland, and to put the Belfast Good Friday Agreement, the foundation of peace in the province, onto life support.  The Protocol arrangements could only have worked with delicate handling, but they have not had it.  Unless the EU now agrees to renegotiate the Protocol, I think the UK Government will have no option but to act unilaterally to correct its weaknesses.

"I know the Administration is following this closely.  I urge them to be cautious in what they say and what they do.  I am not convinced the niceties of Northern Ireland are well understood by this Administration and I hope they will think hard before telling a friendly government how they must act to protect the unity and territorial integrity of their own country.”

Burns was trying to win over sceptics in the Biden government and must have winced at his dig at the president, with his Irish heritage and no fan of Brexit, telling us what to do.

The Biden administration understands the issue far better than Frost or Johnson and are also prepared to be honest about what the NIP - the one that they negotiated, signed and forced through parliament - means for the people of Northern Ireland.

Note he says the government had no “walk away” option because of our own parliament as if the British legislature was an enemy of the British people instead of the elected representatives.

I note he is also blaming the protocol for "inhibiting energetic action on deregulation" for fears of creating bigger trade barriers, a sign that he wants to see much more divergence but much fewer and less intrusive border checks - a contradiction and an impossibility I think.

As for protecting the “unity and territorial integrity of their own country” some people will think he is wilfully blind about what’s happening to Tory votes in Scotland and Wales due almost entirely to Brexit. And I haven’t even mentioned Irish unification which took a decisive step closer this week.

Crucially, he says, “Brexit means we have the levers in our hands.  Almost uniquely among European states, we can take for ourselves the decisions we need to succeed.” 

That’s what we’re all worried about.

An academic at University College Cork says there is bi-partisan support across senior levels of congress, the senate and the White House and Frost’s speech is only likely to harden attitudes against the protocol being ditched:

It looks like his 6,000 mile trip was self-defeating and he simultaneously scuppered Conor Burns' efforts into the bargain. So much for his diplomatic skills.

Not content with interfering in Washington, Frost hurried back to the UK to pen an article for The Daily Telegraph where he told swivel eyed Union Jack waving readers that the UK “cannot be defeated” by Brussels and needed to “make sure it is ready” for the consequences of a unilateral move to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.  You can read a summary of his piece in The Guardian HERE for free.

Anticipating a stern response from Brussels, Frost said: “We may, of course, face EU retaliation, although it would be disproportionate to the trade involved, only arguably legal and entirely self-defeating. I am not convinced every EU member’s heart would be in it either. Logic may yet prevail. But if it does happen, it will complicate things, but we should not fear it.”

He shouldn’t because he won’t suffer. 

His claim that the protocol could only have worked with “delicate handling” is a slightly more nuanced reason than the usual ones where the EU is said to be punishing us for having the temerity to leave. But all of this is rubbished by a tweet from the BBC’s economics editor Faisal Islam which shows the checks and their consequences were all known about and well understood inside and outside government as early as October 2019 just after the NIP was agreed.

Islam’s thread is a reminder just how mendacious Johnson has been.

Finally, what is claimed to be a list of the changes to the NI protocol being demanded by the UK government is published on the blog of trade expert Sam Lowe. You can read it HERE. 

These ‘demands’ don’t all seem totally outrageous or impossible to me but there is still the EU to convince and no guarantee Sinn Fein will accept any changes, or if the DUP will be satisfied even if every demand is met. I have my doubts. It is like trying to remove troublesome pieces from a rickety jenga tower. Even if an agreement is reached how long would the new settlement survive before it breaks down again?

Incidentally, Mr Lowe thinks the grace periods and derogations which the UK has unilaterally applied to chilled meat and sausages, etc, will become permanent and even the EU don’t expect them ever to come into force.

It’s the old trilemma problem to which there is no solution outside the single market and the customs union.

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