There is a survey out this morning, carried out by The Tony Blair Institute and published in the FT, about people’s attitude to the EU. Many favour a closer relationship but there is no majority for rejoining. This may well bolster Starmer’s position to be more ambiguous about Europe, at least ahead of a general election. You can see the whole report HERE. I daresay it's a decent bit of work and I haven't read it in detail yet, but it seems to me there is still a very limited understanding of the EU and the TBI seems to have found 2,078 people who have missed the barrage of information that has come out after six years of Brexit.
The report suggests only a third of voters would support rejoining the SM yet 65% think we should "voluntarily align with EU regulations in some areas" where it would lead to lower costs and 60% would accept a "limited future role for the European Court of Justice if it improves the ability of UK police to keep Britain secure."
Voluntarily aligning with EU regulations is what we are doing at the moment yet an overwhelming majority of the public (59%) in the survey think that Brexit has worsened the UK’s economy, including over a third of Leavers (34%). Voters from all major political parties believe that Brexit has made the economy worse rather than better.
Most voters are said to view the effects of Brexit on their lives as mostly negative, particularly on trade (net -52 percent) and ease of doing business with the EU (-45 percent).
Aligning with EU rules voluntarily is the worst possible outcome. We would be following rules we have no say over and outside all of the SM rules and the CU it won't make a blind bit of difference to trade. It's following all of the so-called flanking rules on employment and fair competition - the EU eco-system - and having a big role for the ECJ - legal enforcement - which makes trade frictionless. In other words, it means joining the SM and the CU which just a third of people want to do.
The survey found little support for the deregulation agenda espoused by Jacob Rees-Mogg and others in the IEA/ERG nexus so good news there.
It is not clear to me (I've only skim-read the summary very quickly this morning) what the TBI is suggesting. Do they want a line-by-line renegotiation of the TCA? Is that what voters think or want? Would the EU even contemplate that?
If people accept a 'limited' role for the CJ in justice matters what is the objection to the ECJ ruling on everything else? What if the EU did accept some renegotiation and later there was no improvement to trade, do we do it all again?
It is all very contradictory and if you look at the questions you begin to see the reason. They are stunningly complex and assume a level of knowledge that the average person doesn't have. It is all cake-and-eat-it stuff.
I confess to being a bit surprised by the result of the polling - carried out at the end of September before Kwarteng’s disastrous budget. Even professor Sir John Curtice has written recently about the tide turning and some pollsters have found a majority would support rejoining the EU, so it is not quite as bleak as the TBI survey suggests. The poll of polls shows a majority (55%) would support rejoining.
If someone spent an hour educating 2,078 people about how the SM works and why I think the result would be quite different. This is perhaps borne out by the last item in the summary of findings:
"This increased support for a different kind of relationship with the EU seems to be mostly driven by the changing attitudes among some 2016 Leavers, who appear to have become more unsure about the effects of Brexit."
Amazing eh?
What I think the TBI survey does reveal is the widespread ignorance surrounding EU membership v the single market and voluntarily following EU rules. It looks to me like voters still want the vision of Brexit that was dangled in front of them in 2016 by Johnson and Gove. They haven't yet accepted that it was always unachievable.
The report's key findings are:
The public’s views on Brexit and its consequences:
Most Britons think Brexit is not “done”, including over a third of Leavers and almost a third of 2019 Conservative voters.
An overwhelming majority of the public (59 percent) think that Brexit has worsened the UK’s economy, including over a third of Leavers (34 percent). Voters from all major political parties believe that Brexit has made the economy worse rather than better.
Most voters view the effects of Brexit on their lives as mostly negative, particularly on trade (net -52 percent) and ease of doing business with the EU (-45 percent).
The consequences of Brexit are seen most negatively in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and the North East of England.
Over a third of voters do not expect any benefits from Brexit. Those who do mostly expect to benefit from the government making use of its independent trade policy. Few voters expect immediate benefits, and most Leavers think benefits will materialise in the next three to five years.
Most of the public thinks that the post-Brexit relationship with the EU is functioning badly in all core areas, but especially on trade (net -42 percent) and cooperation to maintain peace in Northern Ireland (-29 percent).
The public’s views on the future relationship with the European Union:
Almost two-thirds of voters (58 percent) are in favour of the UK government being a constructive partner of the EU and forging a relationship that just works. There are no longer votes to be found in continued acrimony with the EU.
Over two-thirds of voters (70 percent) think that, over the medium term, the UK should have a closer relationship with the EU than what we have today, but only a third of the public think that the UK should seek membership of the EU single market at the minimum.
A majority of the public – including Leave voters – overwhelmingly supports a better-functioning relationship with the EU. There is wide public support for closer cooperation on fighting crime and terrorism (net +81 percent), trade and border arrangements (+77 percent), Northern Ireland (+68 percent), and cooperation on foreign policy (+66 percent).
When considering trade-offs, British voters are pragmatic about what might be required to forge a better relationship with the EU and show readiness to compromise if their choices can be shown to benefit them. There is overwhelming public support (65 percent) for voluntarily aligning with EU regulations in areas where it would lead to lower prices for consumers, as well as for accepting a limited future role for the European Court of Justice (60 percent) if it improves the ability of UK police to keep Britain secure.
A significant majority of the British public (54 percent) – including most Leave voters – supports stricter domestic regulatory protections post-Brexit, even if this means a limited ability to sign a trade deal with a major economy like the United States. To the extent there is any appetite for a race to the bottom on regulation among the British public, it appears limited to one-fifth of all voters.
There is little appetite among the British public for a preferential migration policy for European workers. Voters across the board, including just under half of Remainers (47 percent), want European workers to be treated the same as other foreign workers.
There remains a deep split between 2016 Leave and Remain voters. Most of the views of Leavers are mirrored by 2019 Conservative voters, while the views of Remainers are closely mirrored by 2019 Labour and Liberal Democrat voters.
This increased support for a different kind of relationship with the EU seems to be mostly driven by the changing attitudes among some 2016 Leavers, who appear to have become more unsure about the effects of Brexit. Within the next ten to 15 years, nearly one in five Leave voters (18 percent) would either like the UK to re-join the EU or the single market and a further 45 percent would like to see a closer relationship or see the UK in a new kind of association with the EU.
