Wednesday 19 October 2022

Truss on borrowed time

There have been some strange days in British politics but yesterday was one of the maddest. A lot of Westminster veterans said they had never seen the like of it in years, probably ever. The Home Secretary quit over a minor infraction, the chief whip and her deputy resigned and the PM lost a key adviser who is now under investigation for briefing against Sajid Javid. The whips later “unresigned” and are presumably back in post.

All this took place over a period between mid-afternoon and early evening and most of it revolved around a motion to ban fracking tabled by Labour.

For reasons I can’t quite explain, we watched the whole debate and the vote on Parliament TV. It was probably in the hope the government would be defeated since they had made it a matter of confidence in the PM, who wants to restart fracking against her own manifesto. 

It looked as if there would be a significant number of abstentions and Tory MPs voting against the government and its three-line whip. Those who did so would have lost the whip. As it became clear there were a lot of rebels, the government lost its nerve, seeing they could lose credibility and perhaps their own majority by depriving forty or more rebels of the whip.

Right at the end, Graham Stuart, MP for Beverley and minister for the climate, winding up for the government, suddenly announced the vote would NOT be a confidence vote. The problem was that by this time, most Tory MPs had left the chamber so when the vote began and they traipsed through the division lobbies, some thought it was a vote of confidence and some didn’t. 

What appears to have been akin to a brawl broke out in front of the lobbies, delayed the vote counting, and saw scenes of ministers shouting, arguing, and forcing MPs into the NO lobby. It was complete chaos with Truss said to be in there grabbing the arm of the chief whip Wendy Morton to try and stop her from walking out.

Her deputy was heard:

I think the whips were extremely upset. They felt undermined because nobody told them Stuart was going to announce it was no longer a confidence vote when they were still trying to enforce a three-line whip. 

The MP Charles Walker spoke afterward, he is obviously at the end of his tether:

Newspaper headlines this morning are really terrible and won’t do anything to shore up the polling which shows the Tories well into historic wipe-out territory.


On the fracking issue, don't forget Tory MPs were voting not to 'ban' fracking, something that was in the 2019 manifesto on which they all stood - albeit that used the word 'moratorium' inferring the ban was only temporary. One MP argued that was enough to vote down Labour's motion as if parliament could not lift a ban in the future.

Labour now has attack ads lined up for all the MPs who did not vote to ban fracking. It was a disaster for the Tories.

Of more concern for the government is Suella Braverman’s departure after what the Mail says was a 90-minute shouting match with Truss:


Braverman resigned over what is nothing more than a minor breach of the rules which looks like she has gone deliberately because of a policy disagreement.  She will now be briefing against Truss - and Grant Shapps who (amazingly) takes over the Home Office. 

It is another classic case of Brexit coming up against economic reality. In order to make the books balance, the OBR will need to be confident about economic growth. Growth is partly based on employment and Braverman’s plan to squeeze immigration will have a measurable impact on future growth. Truss, like Johnson, wanted to relax immigration and so help the OBR to forecast a bit more growth to help with future tax revenues. 

This is what the argument was about.  Braverman thinks she could become PM but she would face exactly the same issue and would do exactly what Truss is trying to do. It is simply the fact that Brexiteers cannot face up to the real world.

This was always going to happen. 

The PM would be gone already except the factions inside can't agree on a candidate to take over. Johnson supporters want him back (!!!) and will never accept Sunak. I even read a day or so ago that Johnson would have to 'approve' whoever takes over.  The hard right-wing  Bruges Group tweeted:

Sunak was a Brexiteer but for some that wasn't enough. Sooner or later the party will split. It must split to survive. This has been clear for years. Brexit has destroyed it.

Truss is on borrowed time. She may not even last the day.


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