The polling that I posted about on Thursday is finally starting to cut through into the mainstream media. Sky News, for example, reports that public support for Brexit is at "an all-time low", with one in five Brexiteers now saying they think it was wrong to vote to leave the EU. And the thought that Brexit isn't permanent is beginning to percolate into the mind of some Brexiteers. They are getting nervous it seems, and with good reason. Matt Goodwin is one of them. He is a professor of politics at the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent and he researches British politics, radical-right politics, and Euroscepticism which is fortunate since he is on the right and very Eurosceptic.
In Goodwin’s eyes, Brexit can do no wrong. This was him in October:
Brexit has, without doubt, contributed to economic challenges in the UK (though whether the Brexit impact can truly be measured after 2 yrs is a debate). But so much commentary is simplistic, monocausal. Only an idiot would draw a straight line from the escalating crisis to 2016.
— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 21, 2022
He claims not to have 'campaigned' for Brexit in 2016 which I am sure is true, but there's no doubt in my mind that he supports it.
This is his tweet on the polling:
Britain is changing its mind on Brexit. Just 32% think it was the right call, just 23% think it is being managed well while the share of Brexiteers who back it is down significantly. My latest on why the politics of Brexit might soon be back with a banghttps://t.co/lQq0USi6i1
— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) November 18, 2022
The link takes you to his Substack blog where you're invited to cough up £5 a month to read his thoughts on the political landscape. I didn't do that since I'm pretty sure his answer will be more Brexit which is, of course, the Brexiteer's answer to all problems, isn't it?
The responses below his tweet are instructive of the sort of followers he attracts. A selection for you:
"I really don’t know why Matt you are amplifying an issue when clearly this so called “Breget” is manufactured by the Uber Remainer commentariat who have not gone away since 2019 & now want to exploit every economic weakness as a direct result of Brexit"
"I'm yet to come across a single Leave voter who's changed their mind. Doesn't add up.."
"Sources? How many polled? [it was 1700] Where? When? I did a poll in the pub last night. 90% still vote Leave. Reg was pissed so we put him down as abstaining. There, as relevant as any other poll."
The important thing is that they are getting worried enough to start writing about how to counter the falling support for their project.
Another is Andrew Lillico, an economist and former member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee. He tried to counter the news last week that London has lost the top spot in Europe as the stock market with the highest value by market capitalisation - the value of the companies listed there. Paris has overtaken us.
If any bad Brexit news appears Mr Lillico sees it as his duty to put the opposite - usually slanted case. This is him on Tuesday:
I'm sorry if it's triggering & upsetting to discover that London is in fact the world's 2nd-ranked financial centre, after only New York, & far & away the most important financial centre in Europe. But sometimes the truth hurts. Accept it & seek to grow through the pain.
— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) November 15, 2022
Note for him, Brexit is about causing pain rather than any conceivable benefit. But it looks good, doesn't it?
However, someone then posted the rest of the page that Lillico used to support his argument, which completely changes the picture. See this:
The relevant page of the report is the one below which clearly shows that London is declining and our European competitors are quickly gaining ground. Until people recognise the problem, I fear we will lose our status as the premier financial centre in Europe within a decade. pic.twitter.com/x7vfeKM4ew
— Smitty (@Smitty42322937) November 15, 2022
Each point on the graph represents six months so you can see in 16 years London went from being by far the biggest stock market in Europe to being more or less the same as Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam.
I then downloaded the report for 2016 (GC20) which shows just how much Paris has gained since 2016:
In terms of rating, London slipped from 795 to 731 while Paris rose from 672 to 719. The trajectory is very clear and it's no surprise that Paris is now bigger than London. To deny it is to ignore the problem which is precisely what Brexiteers like Goodwin and Lillico are doing.
When I see Brexiteers like Lillico having to resort to distortions I find it quite comforting.
On a final note, Jeremy Hunt was on Radio 4 yesterday, reported by The Telegraph (HERE) in which he said:
“I think having unfettered trade with our neighbours and countries all over the world is very beneficial to growth.
“I have great confidence that over the years ahead we will find, outside the Single Market, we are able to remove the vast majority of the trade barriers that exist between us and the EU.
“It'll take time, there’s a transition as you deliver something like Brexit, which obviously people have voted for, and we must make a great success of.”
Unless he thinks we will rejoin the single market, Hunt is just as clueless about the EU as Johnson was. It is just more wishful thinking but at least I suppose he accepts the premise that we need 'unfettered trade' - that is a tiny step in the right direction.
