Thursday, 17 November 2022

Polling sounds the death knell for Brexit

The WhatUKthinks series of polls asking: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? has published its 226th survey and it really is quite remarkable. There is now a 24-point gap between those thinking Brexit was a mistake and others who still think it was right. The gap rose from 17 points just over a week ago, although it's been increasing steadily since 2018. The death knell of Brexit is beginning to sound. 

Removing the don't knows gives us 64% to 36%, not far short of the 67% who voted to remain in the EEC in 1975 under Harold Wilson's referendum and probably as high as we are going to get. 

Gavin (now Lord) Barwell, Theresa May's chief of staff, tweeted:

The answer to his question is surely not much longer. It's obvious the Tories can't keep claiming to be delivering what the people voted for when they have clearly changed their minds.

His comments about changing minds aren't quite clear in my opinion. Only 70% of the 2016 leave voters still believe they made the right choice, 19% have switched to believing it was wrong while another 11% are no longer sure they picked the right side.

For comparison 91% of remain voters still think they were right, 5% have switched and just 3% are now unsure. It is a stark difference.

This came out on the day a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee told MPs Brexit has added 6 percent to UK food prices, as inflation hits a 41-year high. Dr. Swati Dhingra also said British workers had taken a 2 percent real terms cut in their wages.

She and her boss Andrew Bailey were appearing before parliament’s treasury committee.  She said that  Britain would suffer more as a direct result of having left the EU.

"It’s undeniable now that we’re seeing a much bigger slowdown in trade in the UK compared to the rest of the world.” 

Dr. Dhingra is an associate professor at the London School of Economics (LSE) and her remarks cannot easily be dismissed. She said British households had seen their food shopping expenses rise 6 percent higher than other countries in recent years, referencing research by LSE students that examined the impact of the UK’s poorer trading terms since Brexit.

So, I wonder if we who marched and continued to campaign against Brexit have had any real impact and whether this was bound to happen anyway as the effects of leaving the single market gradually became clear. The survey also carries some important messages for Kier Starmer. He must be thinking about the best time to soften his stance.

I also doubt that anybody will ever be held to account for the entire debacle? They will all maintain, like Lord Wolfson recently, that they haven't got the Brexit they voted for. But if we tried every possible Brexit or combination of Brexits, we could be at it for centuries. They've all got their own version and none of them will work for every Brexiteer.  That's the problem.

On this last point some wag on Twitter posted this:

This sums up the whole thing, doesn't it?  There was only one Brexit on the ballot paper and this is what they voted for. Thank goodness more and more voters are coming to see that.

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