Wednesday, 31 January 2024

A big day for Brexit

There is a lot of Brexit-related stuff swirling around at the moment and today could be a  very important one for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the government has reached an agreement with the DUP which looks like seeing them return to Stormont in short order- subject to a few conditions. We don’t yet know the details of the changes/easements/concessions made but they are expected to be published today along with draft legislation and a command paper.

DUP leader Jeffery Donaldson revealed the successful conclusion of talks after a rowdy meeting of party members and said the deal "would safeguard Northern Ireland’s place in the UK and restore its place in the UK internal market. 'It will remove checks for goods moving within the UK and remaining in Northern Ireland and will end Northern Ireland automatically following future EU laws'." 

The government/DUP now has to convince unionists there have been massive changes while reassuring Brussels that everything remains as set out in the Windsor Framework. Tory right-wingers will have to be persuaded that the UK will be fully independent, truly sovereign over all of its territory.

It is not going to be an easy task.

The phrase that everybody latched onto was the one about "removing checks for goods moving within the UK and remaining in Northern Ireland."  Quite how that will be achieved will be interesting.

There is, to say the least, quite a bit riding on it all and it’s fair to say, some scepticism about whether or not Donaldson has achieved what he claims. Many unionists don’t think he has, including senior members of the DUP. If Jeffrey Donaldson can keep his party together and his job, he’ll be very fortunate.

Trade expert David Henig was doubtful:

Jamie Bryson, who caused bedlam by live-tweeting the DUP meeting from beginning to end, and is vehemently opposed to the Windsor Framework was not impressed either.

We’ll know later today if it’s a breakthrough or if it's all going to fall apart again. 

Border checks

Next, today is the last day when goods arriving in the UK from Europe will breeze through the border without paperwork or checks. As of midnight tonight, everything will begin to change.

I’m not sure what is going to happen and I don’t believe the government does either. In an election year, this is all very risky stuff and if it does go wrong, it will be another nail in the coffin of Sunak's government and Brexit as well for that matter.

I honestly don’t think the immediate impact will be that noticeable but I confess I may be wrong.  There are serious reports that the price of bacon and sausage will increase:

This is because as of tomorrow health certificates for the import of medium-risk animal products, plants, plant products, and high-risk food (and feed) of non-animal origin from the EU will be required. 

However, if the paperwork is missing the parties involved will simply be given a warning.

There is the risk of some delays and costs will gently rise I'm sure, but whether that will feed through into a sharp and immediate increase in shop prices is doubtful - I think.

At the end of  April, physical checks will start for the same categories of products as above, and from 31 October 2024, the plan is to require safety and security declarations for EU imports. This is all very late, very costly, and entirely unwelcome by everybody except a few fanatics.

We'll see how that pans out as well.

Divergence with EU law

The government quietly sneaked out a report the other day on how much retained EU law has been scrapped, amended, or replaced. You can read the whole thing HERE.  It's 56 pages of waffle.

More important is an article looking at what's actually happened posted by Kenneth Armstrong,  Professor of European Law at Cambridge and a Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, on the web pages of the UK Constitutional Law Association. Amazingly, despite all the efforts of ministers, there are actually MORE EU laws now on the UK statute book than there were when the whole process started:

"When a REUL ‘Dashboard’ was first published by the Government in June 2022, it listed 2417 individual pieces of law. Subsequent departmental reviews, however, have seen that number increase substantially to stand at 6757 instruments at the start of 2024. So while the REUL Act may have torched close to 600 retained EU laws, the size of the potential bonfire has increased significantly. That depends, however, on what the Government plans to do with the over 6000 retained EU laws – known from 1 January 2024 as ‘assimilated’ law – that did not go up in smoke as a result of Schedule 1 of the REUL Act 2023."

This is the first bonfire in history that was bigger after it was torched than it was at the beginning.

The government's report sets out a ‘roadmap’ for future changes to REUL with plans to revoke or reform more than half of assimilated law by June 2026 (to coincide with the tenth anniversary of the UK’s referendum on EU membership). 

It anticipates that 44% – 3012 measures – will be "assimilated permanently.". As Professor Armstrong points out, this is higher "than the total amount of REUL that the Government first thought constituted the entire body of REUL."

Amazing eh?

The IEA

Finally, the Institute of Economic Affairs at 55 Tufton Street has published an article:Why Brexit was a mistake, from a libertarian perspective

It's by an Italian and I confess I don't know what to make of it. The piece contains this:

"However, this article argues that Brexit, rather than decreasing government control, intensified it in the UK. Some libertarians supported Brexit due to a misunderstanding of the European Union’s essential nature and role."

Mr Comte also says: "The notion of the EU as a nascent absolute state is a misinterpretation of its real function: to regulate and balance state powers, particularly in economic matters."

Is the penny dropping in Tufton Street?

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